WKU Meteorology

Good evening WKU!

Tuesday began with humidity and temperatures on the rise for Warren Co.! High temperature was reached around the peak of the afternoon at 84 degrees. A bit of rain out there today… rain showers this morning and this afternoon contributed to 0.09″ of rain in our area thanks to decent convection. Will the rain continue? Yes, but not before a break of mild temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. However, minor evening rain chances for thunderstorms later in the day for Wednesday, but a different story for Thursday. Some isolated storms and rain is expected to sweep across the Midwest into the OH Valley Thursday evening. An oncoming cold front could bringing colder temperature and guess what? You guessed it! Rainfall, unfortunately could bring an end to the work week with wet shoes by Friday morning.

For Wednesday, a good ole’ longwave ridge in the upper air reveals sunshine for Wednesday morning and the PM hours. Temperatures are going to be mildly humid tomorrow, a high of 86 or 87 degrees. A southerly wind creating that juicy feeling of humidity and also convective clouds. With that, brings a small chance for severe thunderstorms late Wedensday afternoon. Some shortwave activity is going to be key in developing the isolated storms and showers later on Wednesday. A shortwave trough is bound to encounter sustained air of high pressure Thursday evening. This mid latitude-cyclone brings in a cold front and heavier rain in the evening hours for most counties in Ky. throughout the rest of the week.

Tuesday: High of 84 degrees with scattered clouds associated with rain and thunderstorms. A slight breeze from a southerly wind keeps conditions rather humid. Amount of precip. ~(0.1″).

Tuesday PM: Mostly clear skies and a calm wind from the south with a nice feeling low of 70 degrees. A risk for fogging and mist in the area with temperatures near that leveled volume for creating dew in the air.

Wed: Partly sunny with scattered clouds. A small risk for scattered thunderstorms in the evening hours of the day. A high temperature of 86, feeling mildly warm thanks to a few rays of sunshine!

Thurs: Partly cloudy increasing clouds into the afternoon. A high of 88 degrees and strong chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening hours. Rain intended for areas of Ky late into Friday morning.

After a cold and rainy majority of last week, I bring you good news of some great weather! This week will start off very warm… and yes, most likely rainy. So keep that umbrella handy just in case a shower pops up just as you’re getting out of the car while running errands today. The high pressure setup from yesterday will continue to sit over us for the entire week, but plentiful moisture and a weak shortwave will combine to create a few rainy periods over the next couple days. For the third Monday in a row, South Central KY has a good shot at some rain, this time by way of a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are already firing off around Nashville and Kentucky’s southern border. The good news is, unlike the rain we had the last two Mondays, any rain experienced should be a quick, but possibly heavy, shower. Another round is possible tonight and another on Tuesday around noon. Today’s showers will be lining up right along the I-65 corridor, so rain chances for those living west of Warren County will be lower than those living east of Warren County.  Expect a higher chance of rain and more widespread coverage tomorrow. After that, our biggest weather worry will be wondering how to make the most of the great weather during the last half of the week.

All week long, winds during the day will be around 10 mph and out of the south and southwest, driving hot and humid air into the Commonwealth.

GFS run from 12z Monday depicting Wednesday at 1pm Central Time. Temperatures in the 80s with winds out of the SW. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

GFS run from 12z Monday depicting Wednesday at 1pm Central Time. Dew points in the 70s with winds out of the SW. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Today: Partly cloudy with rain chances in the afternoon and overnight hours. Highs in the mid 80s with DPs near 70. Hot and muggy.

Tuesday: Rain chances again around noon. Better coverage expected than today. Not quite as hot, but still reaching into the low 80s and still muggy.

Wednesday: A very slight chance of a shower is possible, but the large majority of the area should be bone dry. The bigger concern is morning fog considering the high DPs, calm winds, and clearing skies Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Be a little extra cautious on that drive in to work. Highs back into the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday onward: Hot for this time of year. Temps will likely be in the upper 80s with lots of radiant sunshine. That umbrella may just come in handy to fend off the rain during the first half of the week and then the intense sunshine later in the week.

Hopefully the thought of a potential October lake weekend will get you through this week!

Last week saw some cool, fall like temperatures along with a lot of rain. Friday and Saturday received thick fog that caused trouble commuting for some.

Photos of the fog Friday morning

Today conditions are much better with temperatures reaching a sunny and warm 83. Skies will remain clear today with the exception of a few popup clouds as a High pressure system passes through Kentucky today.

COD surface observation

The moisture will remain to the south for the day. Peeking in as fog Monday morning and  turning to rain through Tuesday. Total accumulation from Monday and Tuesday will be under a quarter of an inch.

Total rain accumulation from Sunday through Tuesday according to GFS

A light breeze will continue blowing today through Monday from the S to SW. Tuesday winds will come from the SW to the W. Peak winds look to hit about 25 knots or about 29 MPH. Conditions will remain on the muggier side unfortunately as dew points will not drop below 60.

Dew point values according to the GFS

Summary

Sunday: High of 83, Low of 64, No precipitation

Monday: High of 82, Low of 67, Some rain (around .01 in) and fog

Tuesday: High of 81, Low of 68, Some rain (around .15 in)

For our early morning, we see patches of fog return, so if you intend to commute, do so carefully. The culprit for such fog is the cold front that is passing by this morning as well, causing temperatures to fall low enough to match the dew points.

10Z Surface Map (Source: College of DuPage)

A smooth ridge like the one below allows for calm weather conditions. Such allows for strong high pressure areas as you see on the map above. With this in mind…

11Z 300mb heights, winds, divergence (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

Expect nothing more than a sunny day for your Saturday. Today will only get as high as the low 70’s. As we head into game night, temperatures will be in the low 60’s to the upper 50’s as we head towards the end of the game. If you plan on attending, wear longer sleeved clothing and bring a light jacket to keep yourself warm.

09Z RAP SFC Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

The same conditions seen today will persist as we conclude our weekend Sunday, with high’s into the upper 70’s, and the lows in the lower to mid 60’s; however, there exists a possibility of rain as we start the next week. Monday afternoon shows a possibility for showers, and as Monday evening, starts, a possibility for rain.

06Z GFS Preciptation Map (Source: College of DuPage)

Summary:

Saturday: Morning fog with an otherwise sunny day; High: 71, Low: 59

Sunday: Nice and sunny; High: 77, Low: 66

Monday: 50% chance of rain, High: 79, Low: 68

Greetings!

Friday is starting to be a chilly foggy morning with temperatures in the mid 50s with a layer of dense fog. This fog is caused by the high pressure bringing cooler temperatures over the saturated ground. The fog will clear out in a couple hours and will lead to a mostly sunny day!

The cold front over a portion of the Mid-West will come south closer to our area. The cold front will lead to more fall temperatures and the potential for another foggy night/morning.

The high today looks to be around the low to mid 70s in central Kentucky with dew points in the mid 50s which will feel great! This is the fall temperatures you hear that people want on social media, maybe a little lower in the high, but this will still feel great.

This weekend is looking to be a beautiful weekend with a slight warm up to the 80s on Sunday. Models are indicating for system to push through at the beginning of next week.

As of right not, it is showing that the rain moves in around Monday afternoon and leaving Tuesday night. It should not be a system that goes non-stop through that time window, there will be breaks.

Summary:

Friday : 74/52

Saturday: 76/55

Sunday: 82/66

Monday:79/68  with a chance of rain.

Good afternoon folks!!

This wet and gloomy pattern will make its way out of the area as we head into the weekend, but first, the rainy conditions will make its presence known for the rest of today. The rest of your Thursday consists of off-and-on rain showers as a stationary boundary positioned over the Tennessee River Valley continues to shift off towards the southeast. Strong upper level winds combining with a southwesterly flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere will provide enough forcing to enhance shower coverage across southern Kentucky. Extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures down across the region with highs topping out in the low to middle 60s.

Below: Frontal Analysis 18Z Wed 26 2018

Drier air will make its way into the region tonight as high pressure pushes in from the west. Temperatures through the night will drop into the low to middle 50s. Dew point values in the low to middle 50s will pose a threat for some fog in the early morning hours, especially in the low lying areas.

Below: NWS Tips For Driving in Patchy Fog

Fog will lift by 10:00 A.M. Friday morning and give way to sunny skies. An area of high pressure will dominate the region during the day on Friday, this will be the trend heading into the weekend. Friday looks spectacular with mostly sunny skies and autumn-like temperatures. High temperatures will rebound peaking in the middle 70s. Friday night temperatures will drop into the lower 50s, don’t be surprised if a few areas drop into the upper 40s.

Below: 2 m AGL Temperatures 21Z Fri 201-09-28

Forecast

Thursday: Cloudy skies with scattered showers, highs topping out in the middle 60s, winds out of the north at 7-10mph

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with fog developing in the early morning hours, lows in the lower 50s with calm winds

Friday: Mostly sunny skies with highs topping out in the middle 70s, light winds out of the north

Have a GREAT day!!

Tuesday takes on another gloomy day, although less rainfall than yesterday. Monday contributed to a little over an inch of rain in Bowling Green, Ky. (1.11″ according to NWS Louisville Climate Report) causing some risks for flooding. Thankfully, today hasn’t had any rain in the bucket so far for Warren County but not so much the case for further western portions of the state (Paducah). Temperatures in BG began in the low 70’s across the region but have gradually overcome the 80 degree mark this afternoon. After a slight clearing, weather conditions are once again relatively humid this afternoon. With rapid winds coming out of the Gulf, these winds moving up to 20 mph are inclusive to creating a more humid atmosphere. After a rain-less morning, this additional moisture will slowly increase cloud coverage into this evening. As a result, rain will be likely this evening, a 50% chance with a 10% chance of a thunderstorm.

Flash Flooding will be of a concern heading into the evening as those dew point temperatures will keep the hopes alive for receiving rain. These storms could be severe in some areas particularly in the western portion of Ky. If the atmosphere can contain enough instability before Wednesday’s cold front, then there could be some severe weather to reckon with.

Wednesday, is set to unveil a new trend of the model guidance data that has been prevalent to mention. A predominant cold front that is set to hit the Mid South region later on this week. This frontal boundary will bring cooler “fall-like” temperatures with low temperatures in the mid 50’s! Drier air and higher altitude of heights for the middle-to-end of your week creates a seasonal atmosphere. Just in time for October! But with that boundary beholds some observation of severe weather stretching along the Ohio Valley. This severe weather outlook keeps Bowling Green in tact, so much as to say that there will be a chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening hours.

Here’s my forecast…

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies with a southerly wind making the day rather gloomy, and windy. An increase in clouds due to rapid speed of winds makes the atmosphere at a slight risk for rain and severe weather later in the day. High temp in the low 80’s and a low temp in the upper 60’s.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy skies with a medium risk for rain showers (50%) that will attribute to less than a quarter of an inch if any. A small risk for thunderstorms as well with moisture becoming heavier in the atmosphere and a distinctive change in wind direction.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with temperatures reaching a morning low temperature of 72 degrees. With the contribution of the cold front, low temps looking to get into the low to mid-50’s. Ah!

Today is one of those curl up in a big blanket and read a book kind of days. It has been raining since most of us woke up and will continue to rain until most of us hit the hay. And it won’t stop there: both Tuesday and Wednesday display high chances for rain. However, there will be a distinct difference in how the rain occurs. Today’s rain has been a constant drizzle to moderate rain, while Tuesday’s rain showers will be more sporadic with a low chance of a few severe storms. Wednesday’s rain will come during the first half of the day ahead of a cold front; therefore, we’ll see some big changes in the second half of the week compared to the first half. The passing of the cold front will be our “stop button” to the rain. But before we see those changes, it’s worth noting that the recent and future rainfall amounts have prompted flash flood watches from National Weather service in Louisville for a majority of Kentucky, including Warren County. The flash flood watch for our area will continue until Wednesday at 1 pm. If you ever come across a road covered by water, ALWAYS turn around, don’t drown. The possibility for water to cover up a washed away section of the road or its ability to carry your car off the road always exists.

The following GIF shows the change from a very moist air mass (the purples and fuchsia) to a dry air mass (the browns and greens) after the cold front passes.

GFS PWATs from Tuesday morning to Friday morning- Courtesy of Pivotal Weather.

Temps will drastically cool off Wednesday evening and stay cool for Thursday and Friday.

GFS temperatures for Wednesday (1 am CST) through Friday (1 pm CST)

Today: Rain will continue with overcast skies keeping temps throughout South Central Kentucky at or below 75.

Tomorrow: Rain chances continue, but will be more sporadic. If cloud cover decreases, as some models indicate, the potential for severe weather will increase as the sun provides more energy for potential storms. Temperatures will also vary based on the amount of sunshine received. Places receiving  lots of sun could see low 80s, while cloudy areas will stay in the mid 70s.

Wednesday: Rainy and windy conditions will end just after the noon hour as will the flash flood watch. Once the rain ends, temperatures will quickly drop from the mid 70s to the low 60s with the passage of the cold front. Overnight into Thursday, lows will bottom out into the 50s.

The cold front will provide low dew points, and skies will be clearing Thursday through the weekend. This will create the prime conditions for cool nights and pleasantly warm days. For those of you in Bowling Green for the weekend, come on out to WKU and enjoy all the festivities of “Parents’ Weekend” and the following football game against Marshall at the Houch!

As we approached the autumn equinox conditions improved tremendously to fit with the incoming season. While Friday saw some strong storms with high winds, conditions cooled and calmed to gentle rain for Saturday, today, and will continue through until Thursday.

Photos taken by author as storms approached Friday

NOAA radar showing continuing rain

Looking at the GFS model the air will be muggy but with the cooler temperatures and increasing winds, it should not make for uncomfortable days. The increased winds will reach up to  30 knots or about 35 MPH on Tuesday. This will be fairly strong so watch out for your hat!

GFS wind conditions through Tuesday night

Thankfully the highest we’ll see temperatures hit between today and Wednesday morning will be 81. Today will stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Temperatures through Tuesday night

SUMMARY:

Sunday will see a high of 71 and a low of 69 with periodic rain showers throughout the day and night.

Monday will reach a high of 75 and a low of 68 with rains continuing off and on throughout the day and night.

Tuesday’s high will be 81 and have a low of 69 and again rains will continue throughout the day and night.

Note: With as  much rain as we are seeing, there is a strong chance of flash flooding. Please be careful and remember: