WKU Meteorology

After a week of pomping, midterms, difficult homework assignments, cheering on the Tops, and a lot of costume and candy shopping, the end of the Homecoming activities was welcomed with open arms. Just to put it into perspective, many WKU students slept most of Sunday away, with reports of students sleeping for 16 hours straight! And if that rest wasn’t enough to get people ready for another work/school week, maybe today’s magnificent Monday weather put smiles on their faces. But one day just isn’t enough, so let’s see what the next few days will bring us.

Tuesday will be nice and warm with mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the mid 70’s. This is the perfect type of day to shed the sweatshirt and start raking those big, orange leaves from the maple trees that are prevalent throughout Bowling Green. If you’re a student, it will be a great day to Eno under the cherry trees or play a little ultimate frisbee on South Lawn. Just don’t miss out on tomorrow’s great conditions because they will change quickly as Wednesday rolls around.

Yes, Halloween Wednesday will be a little less spooky and a little more soggy. As the kiddos (or 20 year olds) head out to trick-or-treat, rain will be moving in ahead of a cold front.  While the front itself will pass through around noon Thursday, the rain chances will begin around dinnertime on Halloween. With the wet weather in mind, make sure to adjust your plans accordingly.

Depiction of rainfall from Wednesday into Thursday from the 0Z NAM – Courtesy Pivotal Weather.

0Z GFS showing center of low pressure system moving directly over South Central KY. Temp and wind change mid-afternoon Thursday. – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Southerly flow will keep our temps in the 60’s all night long Wednesday into Thursday, so our high temperature Thursday will actually come during the morning hours just before the front passes through. As the front moves off to the East, temperatures will drop into the 40’s by mid-afternoon and stay there for the rest of the day. The umbrella will be a necessity Thursday since this will be an all-day rain event.

When all is said and done by Friday, portions of South Central Kentucky could see total rainfall amounts of a couple inches or more.

Tuesday: high of 74, mostly clear skies. Enjoy it while you can!

Wednesday: high of 70, rain starting during the evening hours and continuing throughout the night.

Thursday: Continuous moderate rainfall, high of 64 around midnight with temps dropping into the low 40’s throughout the day. Winds shifting from South to North by the end of the day.

Good day everyone!

With winds coming from the southwest, we are experiencing some warmer weather today. There is a wind advisory out due to gusts with the potential of 35 mph. There is a clipper centered just below the Great Lakes moving southeast. It will pass through Kentucky sometime this afternoon or early tonight. Some rain is already being seen in some parts of the state including the Bowling Green area.

Surface Observation

After the clipper makes its way out of the area, a high pressure system will enter the area leading to cooler weather for Monday. There will be a few clouds in the sky especially Tuesday as a cold front

Greetings!

This Friday looks to be a wet one! It also looks to stay wet through out the day. With the  Jet stream deeding  south, causing lift. As the day progress an upper level low will come across the area, but the lower levels will still stay moisturized. Making the rain a little more scattered , but still a high chance. At night time hours, the upper-level low will move east out of the area, however, the low level moisture will still remain leaving a chance for a drizzle. With the high of mid 50s and the low in the upper 40s. The rain and clouds will make the temperature max and min stay relatively close.

For Saturday, the clouds remain all day, but only a little chance of rain. As of right now. according to the GFS 06z run the clouds start to clear out of the area around late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Saturday is also looking to be a cooler day with the high in the upper 50s and lows in the lower 40s. But with the winds coming from the south west on Sunday, the tempertures will increase to lower 70s with lows to the lower 40s. A with the clouds and moisture gone the max and min temperate can vary greater.

Summary:

Friday: 53/46 with a high chance of rain throughout the day

Saturday: 56/43 with a low chance of rain, but cloudy

Sunday: 70/44 Decreasing clouds as the day goes on

Good evening Folks!!

Scattered showers have began across the region this evening, thanks to a low-level jet pumping in moisture from the southwest. Rain chances will continue to be on the increase into the overnight hours, expect ample cloud cover to start off the day on Friday. Overnight lows will dip down to around 50 degrees. As for tomorrow, expect periodic chances of rain throughout the day as the axis of an upper level trough moves through the Ohio River Valley. If you plan on heading out to the Western Kentucky homecoming parade, make sure to have an umbrella or rain coat in hand. Highs for your Friday will top out in the middle 50s.

Below: Fri 2018-10-26 16z 2m AGL Temperature

Rain chances and extensive cloud cover will continue into Friday night thanks to a long-wave trough stretching from the Midwest to the Gulf of Mexico with a few shortwaves riding along the main trough. The rain chances overnight will cause the overnight lows to drop a few degrees into the lower 50s. Rain chances will back off a little bit heading into Saturday just in time for WKU’s homecoming football game. Skies will stay on the cloudy side for most of the day with highs topping out around 55 degrees.

Below: WKU Alumni Association

Forecast:

Friday: Scattered showers throughout the day with otherwise cloudy skies, high temperature around 54 degrees, rainfall totals between a tenth and a quarter inch.

Friday Night: Showers likely before midnight, low temperature of 45 degrees.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers with otherwise mostly cloudy skies, high temperature of 56 degrees.

GO TOPS!!

Good afternoon WKU!

Happy Homecoming Week! The first thing on your mind concerning the weather is I’m sure about concerns with how cold it will be. Monday started out quite bitter with a Freeze Advisory due to a minimum temperature of 33°F… one degree shy of freezing! However, good news for Tuesday is that temperatures are going to be milder with highs in the upper 60°F this afternoon. Due to a low leveled trough in the northeast region, results in accommodating a backside ridge structure for areas in the Mid-South. This area of pressure rises will really be efficient at unlocking an abundance of sunshine for the Mid-South region throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. The downstream effects from the north packs on some light winds associated with a cold front. As a result, cooler conditions, this boundary will ensure a fall-like breeze for the rest of your Tuesday. As that trough veers its way down into the Midwest and across the Great Lakes, upper-air heights will be gradually lower. Convergence picks up from the jet stream altering low temperatures and will develop into the northeast later in the week possibly as a heavy-hitting nor’easter. For the Mid-South, minimum temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will continue to be frigid in the upper 30’s/low 40’s. Considering that cold front moves through, temperatures for Wednesday will be slightly cooler than the start of this week. Highs looking to be upper 50’s/low 60’s for the next few days.

Conversely, this systematic high pressure is sure to deteriorate in a couple days and the next topic of discussion is the moisture factor headed our way out of the southwest. The Atlantic Ocean has been well in the news with multiple hurricanes forming but the Pacific has been doing some work as well. Hurricane Willa has been forming along the Mexico border with some prevailing winds and width that has since weakened. Clouds will be on the increase for Thursday and Friday as that incoming moisture from the southwest increases dew point factors. This relationship will seem to alter your plans for the Homecoming Parade Friday evening.

Here is a recent report from NOAA NWS (12:40 CDT):

“Although Willa has weakened to a Category 3 hurricane, it is still forecast to make landfall in Mexico today. Remnants of Willa will bring significant rainfall across a swath of the southern United States from southeast Texas through southern Georgia. Portions of the Florida Panhandle affected by Hurricane Michael are of particular concern as they’re expected to pick up a few inches of rain through Friday.”

Hurricane track and elements of Hurricane Willa and it’s behavior courtesy of WPC

While Willa will create heavy rain and flooding in the Southwest U.S., surges of this storm could reach the Mid-South region by Friday evening. Below is a Weather Storm Prediction model courtesy of NOAA NWS displaying the quantitative precipitation forecast for day 2 and day 3. On the left is valid for Wednesday, displaying that the conditions are going to be dry for tomorrow in the Mid-South. However, not so much for the transition into Thursday as that moisture shift takes place Thursday evening into Friday morning from Willa.

Tuesday: 68/37 Mostly Clear skies due to high pressure and light winds from the NNW. Fall-like breezes with speeds up to 10 mph and dew points in the low 30’s makes temperatures frigid.

Wednesday: 61/38 Cold front affects the condition of temperatures but mostly sunny skies warms us up. Slight winds about 5 mph from the north. Dew points in the 30’s making the nights cooler from a lack of absorption.

Thursday: 59/40 Partly cloudy with clouds increasing. Moisture from Willa and fast paced winds up to 15 mph will flare up some cloud cover. Dew points will juice up to upper 40’s.

Get ready to pomp with your hands, stomp with your feet, and yell with your mouth that Dear Old Western can’t be beat!… actually, we’re 1-6 this season, so we get beat a lot. But enough about sports, let’s talk weather.

What a change since October 1st. We started off this month with 10 straight days of high temps of 84 or higher. One of those days it hit 90. We started off this morning just 1 degree above freezing. Woah! Just like Spring, Fall is a wacky time of year that can bring all sorts of changes in weather. This is caused by Earth’s tilt and how it revolves around the Sun, which combine to create changes in differential heating between the Equator and North Pole. Basically, when the sun warms up one area (the Equator) more than another (the North Pole), the atmosphere really starts moving and churning, so it can create a balance in temperature and pressure across the Northern Hemisphere. This causes an increase in severe weather events and bigger temperature changes at the surface as warm and cold fronts move across the country.

Over the first half of the week, we won’t be seeing much in the way of changing weather. High pressure in place will keep around the cool morning starts and provide plenty of sunshine Monday through Wednesday.

12Z NAM GIF showing cloud cover Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening. -Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

If you are a fan of meteor showers, tonight is the night to go out and do so. Yes, the Orionid meteor shower technically peaked last night, but tonight’s leftovers will still be worth watching. The only thing impeding visibility tonight is the presence of the nearly full moon. As seen in the GIF above, clouds will primarily remain south of the state line all night long. Low temps will be hard-pressed to make it below 40 even with clear skies due to the dewpoint temps in the upper 30s. So, grab a couple of blankets and some friends and marvel at creation tonight.

Tuesday will be even warmer than today as temps move into the mid-upper 60s. All in all, another nice Fall day.

12Z GFS depicting temps in the mid 50s and winds of 10-15mph throughout SOKY at 1pm Wednesday. -Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Wednesday, prepare your mind, your body, and your wardrobe for Homecoming Games 2018 at the Colonnade, 3pm. With a high in the upper 50s, it’s not a bad idea to wrap a blanket around your shoulders as you cheer on your favorite Greek organization.

Today: As of noon, it was already 59°F and will continue to get warmer. High of 65 with a few passing clouds, but primarily very sunny.

Tonight: Low of 41 with light winds and clear skies.

Tuesday: Sunny and a little warmer with a high of 68.

Wednesday: starting off in the low-mid 30s, high in the upper 50s with a briskness to it. Winds will pick up to 10-15mph by the mid-afternoon hours.

While this week will be extremely busy with Homecoming preparations, competitions, and other activities, the only thing you have to worry about weatherwise for the next 3 days is picking the right sweatshirt or flannel to wear each day. Don’t forget to keep tuning in this week to see if it will be dry for our big weekend plans.

Yesterday started off very nice with temperatures topping at 66. Soon we felt the cold though as a cold front came through last night. I imagine many of you all felt the winds as they picked up. We even had a peak wind gust of 33 mph! From this cold front we will have cooler temperatures today. Temperatures will hit freezing tonight. The National Weather Service office in Louisville has issued a freeze warning from 1:00 am October 22 to 8:00 am October 22. Please be sure to cover any sensitive plants or bring them inside if possible. Thankfully we have a chain of high pressure systems coming from the west so we should see clear, sunny skies for the next few days.

Surface Observations

Satellite Imagery

Overall, temperatures do not look to get above the low 60s. Another cold front will makes its way across the area Tuesday bringing with it cooler temperatures for Wednesday and winds. Thankfully the winds will be much calmer than those yesterday. Behind that cold front will be another high pressure system to center on the Great Lakes region. This will help keep cool temperatures around for us.

You can see as winds change from coming from the west to coming from the north indicating the cold front

Summary:

• Sunday:
  • High- 56
  • Low- 32
  • Precipitation-0, cloud free skies
  • NOTE: There is a freeze warning out and there will be frost!
• Monday:
  • High- 65
  • Low- 41
  • Precipitation-0, clear skies
• Tuesday:
  • High- 63
  • Low- 37
  • Precipitation-0, clear skies

As always everyone have a fun and safe week!

We are starting off our morning with cloudy conditions, and they will pass as we enter our afternoon. Expect the weather to be a bit colder as a cold front extending all the way from Canada will pass this morning as well. In fact, the National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a special weather statement for today through 3pm, which outlines that frost may be an issue as of tonight and Sunday night as well, so be sure to protect any of your sensitive crops.

13Z Infrared Satellite (Source: College of DuPage)

Expect temperatures to get up to the lower 60’s and get down to the lower 40’s in time for WKU’s football game against Old Dominion. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30’s. Luckily, any rain is out of the question for tonight and into Tuesday morning.

6Z GFS SLP and Precipitation (Source: College of DuPage)

Sunday will have highs into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s and lows into the lower 30’s, hence the possible frost danger. Monday will have highs into the mid to upper 50’s and lows into the mid to lower 30’s. Neither of these days will see rain.

Summary:

Saturday: Skies clearing in the afternoon, High: 60, Low: 37

Sunday: Clear and cool, High: 50, Low: 31

Monday: Clear and cool, High: 56, Low: 36