WKU Meteorology

Good afternoon WKU!

Conditions started out in the mid 50’s causing a slight risk of patchy fog out there this morning. Skies are partly sunny due to upper level heights in the atmosphere but clouds will increase as the day dwells. A rather cooling effect on the conditions today with high temperatures in the low 70s. A calming northern breeze at the surface keeps weather conditions dry and breezy this afternoon.

So, no rain to consider, today is rather an ideal day for your Tuesday excluding the low clouds. Segments of clouds and sun throughout the Mid-South region will be the theme this week. Model guides in the upper level unveiling southeastern moisture being pumped into the eastern coast due to such tropical activity in the Atlantic ocean. Convectional heating this afternoon will juice up those dew points for over night into Wednesday morning.

Mostly cloudy skies tonight with a Low in the upper 50’s. A bit nippy at night time so be sure to dress accordingly to the weather. I’d suggest a longsleeve shirt or pants… even both! Temperatures warm up to low 80’s for Wednesday with partly cloudy skies as well.

Here’s my forecast…

Today: Partly cloudy skies with segments of Sun and clouds. Highs in the low 70’s and a Low in the low 60’s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with an overnight Low in the upper 50’s.

Tomorrow: Partly sunny with temporary clouds. Highs in the low 80’s, Lows in the mid 60’s.

A week in weather can bring about drastic changes, especially during the transition from one season to another. Last Monday we experienced a high of 93. Today, the cold front from this weekend combined with the associated dense cloud cover have prevented us from even reaching 70. It will stay near or below 70 for the rest of the day considering peak heating is almost behind us. Nighttime temps will be matching our dewpoint temps at one or two degrees below or above 60 for South Central Kentucky, so the potential for fog is definitely possible over the next couple nights. For now, the oppressive summertime heat and humidity have given way to more fall-like conditions… but as usual, things change.

The following image depicts highs in the mid 70s for Tuesday. Note the High Pressure over Northern Indiana. The positioning of this High will keep our temperatures below average as winds associated with it come from a mainly northeasterly direction and bring in cool air.

12Z NAM Valid for 1 pm CDT Tuesday – Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

In combination with the cool temperatures, low dewpoints will make for very comfortable conditions through Wednesday. A light jacket might be necessary for those who are naturally cool, especially during the early morning and late evening hours.

Cloud cover will remain prevalent through Wednesday morning. It’s not until Wednesday afternoon that we get a nice break in clouds, resulting in a little warm-up. As the week progresses, cloud cover will continue to decrease, temperatures will continue to increase, and conditions will return to average for the time of year.

While it will be very calm throughout the Commonwealth this week, it’s a much different story on the Eastern Seaboard where residents are preparing for a potential major hurricane. Hurricane Florence could cause catastrophic flooding over the Carolinas if it stalls out over N.C. as the models currently predict. While impacts from Hurricane Florence will be negligible for our area, our team will keep you updated on the storm throughout the week.

Tonight: Low of 60 with calm conditions, fog possible.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): A little warmer, but still below average. High of 76 with mostly cloudy conditions and a cool breeze out of the NE.

Wednesday: High near 80, mostly cloudy conditions continue for the first half of the day. Sunshine becoming more prevalent during the afternoon hours.

Thursday and onward: Seasonable temperatures return as cloud cover dissipates. Highs in the mid 80s.

Good morning everyone!

Sunday morning started of a wet one with temperatures in the low 70s. Not much will change for the next 3 days as a cold front associated with a cut off low makes its way through the area Sunday. Temperatures will fall to the mid and upper 70s during the day, and will fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Conditions will remain wet until towards Sunday night where it will become cloudy. The following two days should see skies partially cloudy.

Based on the GFS dewpoint values will begin to fall today and continue dropping through Wednesday morning. You should feel much more comfortable through the first half of this week!

GFS 850mb dewpoints Sunday-Wed

Relative humidity levels will also drop through this week so the air will feel drier unfortunately not by much though.

GFS Relative Humidity Sunday-Thursday

To wrap things up:

Sunday temperatures will hit a high of 76 and a low of 61. Precipitation will continue through Sunday afternoon where it will start to dry off.

Monday temperatures will reach a high of 77 with a low of 60. Skies will will partly cloudy during the day and cloudy at night.

Tuesday we’ll see a high of 78 and a low of 63. Skies will continue to be partly cloudy during the day and cloudy at night.

Our Saturday is off to a cloudy start due to Gordon’s remnants passing on mainly through the Midwest. But the questions I’m here to answer today are: Will it rain during the Cage the Elephant concert? Will it rain during WKU’s football game?

13Z IR Satellite (courtesy of College of DuPage)

Fortunately, the morning and early afternoon will be quiet yet cloudy, and that will be unlikely to change as we progress to concert time and ultimately, game time. Dew points still stand in the low 70’s, serving to continue the muggy condition within Central Kentucky and Central Tennessee.

09Z RAP Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

Concert time and game time have a medium chance for showers for Saturday evening, so concertgoers should bring their finest ponchos to cage themselves in just in case the rain comes in. We are also looking at another chance for rain throughout the duration of WKU’s football game, so be prepared when it happens.

These same conditions persist as we end our weekend, but an incoming cold front will bring an end to the rainy conditions.

Saturday: Medium chance of afternoon and evening showers, High 88, Low: 74

Sunday: Medium chance of rain, High: 77,  Low: 60

Monday: Comfortable, nice and sunny, High: 73, Low: 63

Greetings Southern Kentucky!

September 7, 2018 is looking to be the start to a wet weekend. As remnants of Tropical Depression Gordon moves North-Easterly across the plains and a weak surface boundary sitting over southern Illinois and central Indiana. This adds up to a nice set up of convergence, giving Kentucky a chance to see pop up storms. The greater chance for the convergence to trigger pop up storms is southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. Whereas in Southern Kentucky will start with to isolated showers to scattered in the late afternoon hours.

Below is the 11Z HRRR at 2 p.m Central Daylight Time

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

As the HRRR indicates that the chance for pop up storms will be greater in the late afternoon. With a low chance to see isolated thunderstorms in the evening hours. The overnight hours looks to be quite, but can’t rule out a shower totally.

The temperatures looks to be similar  compared to early week. With the high around upper 80s   with high dew points in the low 70s. The rule of thumb says that when the dew points are in the 70s that it feels oppressive and you will probably feel awful, even if you have to be outside for just a short amount of time.

The 11Z HRRR is indicating dew points in the low 70s in central Kentucky.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Clouds will increase though out the day and with the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms the low is looking to be in the  mid 70s.

The current cloud cover is broken and will stay broken till the late afternoon to the evening hours where then it will switch to overcast.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19#

In summary:

Friday: Highs in the upper 80s with lows in the mid 70s. With increasing clouds and precipitation in the late afternoon and evening hours.

Saturday: Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the lower 70s. With a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday: Highs in the low 80s and lows being in the upper 60s. with chance of showers throughout the day and  will clear out sometime through the overnight.

The beginning of next week looks to be in the low 80s as a high and a small chance of  precipitation.

Good Evening folks!

It is time to dust off your rain boots and umbrellas as rain chances come back into the picture over the next few days.

For the rest of this evening, scattered showers will persist for the next few hours. Otherwise, most of the region will be experiencing mostly cloudy skies with temperatures hovering in the lower 70’s.

Below: 21Z NAM Composite Reflectivity

The remnants of tropical storm Gordon will spread north into Missouri and Illinois heading into Friday. The first half of the day looks mostly dry with a few isolated showers around the region. Areas across the region that do experience sunshine will feel very soupy, dew point temperatures will hover in the low to mid 70’s.  As the moisture from the remnants of Gordon move closer to the area later in the afternoon, showers will be on the increase. High temperatures for your Friday will be around 85 degrees.

Below: Fri 2018-09-07 18Z Dew Point Temperatures

Saturday looks like it could be a soggy one as the remnants of Gordon pushes just north of the Ohio River Valley. Showers and thunderstorms become more likely as the day goes on with a lot of available moisture in the atmosphere to work with. This is a problem in the afternoon with Cage the Elephant concert and WKU’s home opener football game.

Below: Sat 2018-09-08 21Z Composite Reflectivity

With rain chances becoming more likely during the afternoon hours on Saturday, models are still not in agreement with the exact timing of the rain and how much rain to expect. Stay tuned for further updates.

Bowling Green forecast:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies, low right around 70 degrees

Friday: Isolated showers in the morning, chances of rain increase in the afternoon, high temperature will be in the mid 80’s

Saturday: Shower and thunderstorm chances increase throughout the day, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours, high temperatures will be in the low 80’s

Good morning folks, a very similar day for Tuesday… like Monday, temperatures are feeling seasonably summer-like in the 90’s. Decent upper air rotation (clockwise) suggests a higher altitude of heights in the atmosphere to start back the work week. Mostly clear skies and a predominately southward wind induces dew points in the 70’s early before dawn. Watch for possibly hazy roads if your driving around that early!

Temperatures during the day are to be a bit warmer than yesterday. Maximum temperature flirting with the 90 degree mark and maybe beyond. Humidity keeps heat indices several degrees hotter making that “real-feel” temperature. Dew points in the upper 60’s will make conditions become uncomfortable at the peak of the day. It will be hot. It will be humid. Here’s some things to consider:

• Drink plenty of fluids
• Wear loose fitted clothing
• Eat breakfast and a well-nourished meal throughout the day
• Protect those glands, wear sunscreen

A slight balance in the upper air keeps rain chances slim for Tuesday but some low clouds may become in tact for some spotty showers late afternoon. However, don’t fret, rain chances aren’t prevalent in today’s forecast but the approach of Hurricane Gordon could call for more relevant severe weather throughout the rest of the week.

All systems are a go for South Central Kentucky in terms of Labor Day plans. Bring out the burgers and hot dogs and lots of ice cold water because it will be a real heater today. Like a typical MLB player’s fastball, temperatures will be in the low 90s with dewpoints like a slow curveball in the low to mid 70s. That means hot and muggy all day long. If you don’t have a tailgating tent, it may be best to just move the party indoors to beat the heat.

NAM showing high pressure over most of the Eastern US (4pm CDT):

500mb heights and winds initialized 9/3 at 12z and valid Monday, Sept. 3rd, at 21z -Courtesy Pivotal Weather

Temperatures and winds from the NAM showing South-Southeast flow bringing in the heat (4pm CDT):

Temperature and winds initialized 9/3 at 12z and valid Monday, Sept. 3rd, at 21z -Courtesy Pivotal Weather

Dewpoints, as depicted by the NAM, will be oppressive for holiday plans (4pm CDT):

Dewpoints initialized 9/3 at 12z and valid Monday, Sept. 3rd, at 21z -Courtesy Pivotal Weather

As we move later into the week, conditions will remain hot and humid, with temperatures around 90 and DPs hovering near 70; however, a slight chance of rain is possible mid-week as recently named Tropical Storm Gordon makes its way northwest through the Gulf. While these chances are low for now, any chance for rain is a welcome possibility after so many hot days (7 of the last 9 days have been 90 or above). At the least, there will be an increase in cloud cover Wednesday and Thursday, but it will do little in the way of reducing temperatures. Nighttime temps will remain in the low 70s throughout most of the week.

To sum it up:

Today (Monday): Labor Day plans should include an indoor or at least a shaded area. If a pool is available, make good use of it. Use sunscreen, drink cold water, and relax on the day off. Highs in the low 90s with a very muggy feel to them.

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Conditions will be identical to those we experience today.

Wednesday: Rain chances increase later in the day, but they will only be enjoyed by a select few. Otherwise, still hot and sticky.

Thursday and beyond: Cloud cover and rain chances further increasing, temperatures on a very slow decline closer to the weekend.

Enjoy the day off, and remember to drink plenty of water today and all week long (alcohol does not replenish the body)!