WKU Meteorology

I am sure that by now everyone is aware of Hurricane Michael. Hurricane Michael has been being watched since around September 19 when it was simply a tropical disturbance with around a 50% of it becoming anything. October 6, 2018 the government of Cuba sent out a tropical storm watch which then became Tropical Cyclone Fourteen. As of right now, Michael is to the west of Florida. It is moving northward at 12 MPH with maximum winds of 120 MPH. Areas that are expected to be impacted include: Eastern Florida and the Florida Panhandle, the southern part of Mississippi, the south and southeastern part of Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and parts of Maryland. IF YOU ARE ALONG THE COAST IN MS, AL, FL, or GA: PLEASE EVACUATE!!

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152906.shtml?cone#contents

Hurricane Michael should make landfall sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. The biggest threats with this storm are storm surges, heavy rainfall, and heavy winds. The heavy rains could cause a larger problem with sending nitrates and other agricultural nutrients towards the sea helping to further strengthen the Red Tide. As with any other event with heavy rainfall, please refrain from driving through the waters if you chose to remain in the area of impact.

Above are the projected rainfall values. Unfortunately the Carolinas are going to see more unneeded rainfall. Please be on the lookout for more flooding. Extremely strong winds can already be felt in the impacted areas and are expected to increase through the night.

Storm surge warning have been put in lace for most of the eastern part of Florida and the Panhandle. Areas around Pensacola and Tampa are in a watch. Storm surges can best be defined as the sea raising due to a change in pressure, often due to storms. This rising causes flooding and large waves. Surges are expected to reach over 9 feet in some areas as seen in the graphic below. These surges are extremely dangerous so BE CAREFUL!

This is from the NHC for expected surges:

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

Hurricane Michael has already tightened and become more symmetrical. It is expected to become at least a category 3 before making landfall. As with any other storm, there are possibilities of tornadoes spinning up. The NHC is expecting most of these in the Panhandle and north part of Florida and in Georgia. Please keep in mind that tornadoes are highly unpredictable and still have the possibility of stirring up elsewhere.

For more information please visit: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Michael

As a wrap up I simply ask that everyone be smart and be safe!

Right now in Bowling Green, it is in the upper 70s with a very muggy dewpoint of 72. A stationary front lies just to the north of Kentucky that will likely dip down into part of the state throughout the week.

Surface Observation

The high pressure system to the east is keeping us stuck in this sauna instead of getting to enjoy the pleasure of fall weather. Looking at the GFS, it looks like that system should finally be pushed out Tuesday. A very deep trough from the northwest will come through to push that high pressure system out of the way. This trough will give a big boost in rain/thunderstorm chances for Wednesday. We also have the chance to see the leftovers of Tropical Depression 14 Wednesday and Thursday. Heights will increase Tuesday so there is a good chance we will see at least some showers from that.

GFS Wind Speeds and Heights at the surface

Unfortunately looking at the dewpoint models, it doesn’t look like we’ll get a ton of relief. Sunday and Monday will both be pretty nasty on the muggy meter. Sunday and Monday both are looking at maximum dewpoints at 72. Dewpoints will drop to 71 Tuesday, but then jump back up to 72 Wednesday.  Thankfully Thursday is looking to have its maximum in the upper 60s, which believe it or not will be a big improvement.

GFS dewpoints

So in summary

The Good: Relief is on its way sometime between Tuesday evening and Wednesday.

The Bad: We have a high pressure system that does not want to leave.

The Ugly: The muggy meter will be extra nasty to us until Thursday.

Sunday will reach a high of 90 and a low of 68 with a slight chance for rain over night.

Monday will hit a high of 88 and a low of 69 with a slight chance for rain.

Tuesday will see a high of 87 and a low of 68 with an increased chance of rain and a slight chance for thunderstorms.

12Z Wind Speed, Wind Direction, Heights, Divergence (Source: SPC)

It is another start of a hot and humid weekend here in Bowling Green. A strong ridge is bringing in moisture along with higher temperatures, such as the one above. Temperatures will reach as high as the mid-80’s and will go down to the lower 70’s as we finish our Saturday. Dew points will remain in the upper 60’s and lower 70’s, making for horribly uncomfortable conditions. If going outside for long periods, please stay hydrated.

12 RAP Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

There is a small chance for a stray showers to pop up. Other than that, there will be no stops in the hot and humid train as we continue into Sunday and into next week. For Sunday, temperatures will get into the low 80’s and fall to the upper 60’s. Monday follows a similar trend, with highs into low 80’s, and lows into the upper 60’s.

Summary:

Saturday: Hot and humid with 20% chance of showers; High: 85, Low: 70

Sunday: Hot and humid; High: 83, Low: 69

Monday: Hot and humid; High: 84, Low: 71

Greetings!

If you only looked at the temperatures, you would not believe when I tell you we are in October! The average high this time of year in Kentucky is around 71 degrees with the low of 46. Our low temperature is closer to the average high, which means that our high is well above average. 

But as the 06z NAM is showing that the high around 86 and low in the mid 70s this Friday. Not to mention that the dew points will be around the lower 70s. As a result it may feel close to the lower 90s.

Do you ever ask why we can not have cool temperatures? I did, but looking at the setup it will become clear why this ridiculously hot weather is happening.

The high pressure over Mississippi is one stubborn high pressure and refuses to move. Looking ahead in the models our area gets close to cooler temperature, but then the high pressures regains its grip over the area. As of right now we will not see a real cool down for a couple of weeks.

Summary:

Friday: 87/68

Saturday: 88/67 With a slight chance of thunderstorms

Sunday: 89/68

Good evening folks!!

The warm temperatures from today will continue on into Friday and eventually into the weekend as an area of high pressure dominates the southeast.

Below: Fri 2018-10-05 21Z 2 m AGL Temperature

For the remainder of the night, skies should remain clear and conditions will be dry. As the morning hours near, some light fog could develop across southcentral Kentucky, low temperature for the morning should remain in the 60s. For tomorrow, there is a slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours as a pesky cold front gets picked up by an upper-level shortwave and move on out of here. Highs tomorrow will be very similar to today’s, topping out in the upper 80s, could see a few 90s spotted on the map.

The weekend will be a toasting one, as the area of high pressure slightly moves towards the east into the Carolinas. Temperatures will remain in the upper 80s with morning lows in the 60s. If you plan on being outside this weekend, remember to stay hydrated with lots of fluids.

Below: Sat 2018-10-06 850 mb Temperature Anomaly

Forecast:

Tomorrow: Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, but skies will remain partly cloudy. The high temperature will be 88°, calm winds at 5-7 mph.

Friday night: Mostly clear skies with a low in the middle 60s, calm winds at 3-5 mph.

Saturday: Slight chance of showers with mostly clear skies throughout the day. The high will be right around 88° with calm winds at 5-7 mph.

Good evening WKU!

Tuesday began with humidity and temperatures on the rise for Warren Co.! High temperature was reached around the peak of the afternoon at 84 degrees. A bit of rain out there today… rain showers this morning and this afternoon contributed to 0.09″ of rain in our area thanks to decent convection. Will the rain continue? Yes, but not before a break of mild temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. However, minor evening rain chances for thunderstorms later in the day for Wednesday, but a different story for Thursday. Some isolated storms and rain is expected to sweep across the Midwest into the OH Valley Thursday evening. An oncoming cold front could bringing colder temperature and guess what? You guessed it! Rainfall, unfortunately could bring an end to the work week with wet shoes by Friday morning.

For Wednesday, a good ole’ longwave ridge in the upper air reveals sunshine for Wednesday morning and the PM hours. Temperatures are going to be mildly humid tomorrow, a high of 86 or 87 degrees. A southerly wind creating that juicy feeling of humidity and also convective clouds. With that, brings a small chance for severe thunderstorms late Wedensday afternoon. Some shortwave activity is going to be key in developing the isolated storms and showers later on Wednesday. A shortwave trough is bound to encounter sustained air of high pressure Thursday evening. This mid latitude-cyclone brings in a cold front and heavier rain in the evening hours for most counties in Ky. throughout the rest of the week.

Tuesday: High of 84 degrees with scattered clouds associated with rain and thunderstorms. A slight breeze from a southerly wind keeps conditions rather humid. Amount of precip. ~(0.1″).

Tuesday PM: Mostly clear skies and a calm wind from the south with a nice feeling low of 70 degrees. A risk for fogging and mist in the area with temperatures near that leveled volume for creating dew in the air.

Wed: Partly sunny with scattered clouds. A small risk for scattered thunderstorms in the evening hours of the day. A high temperature of 86, feeling mildly warm thanks to a few rays of sunshine!

Thurs: Partly cloudy increasing clouds into the afternoon. A high of 88 degrees and strong chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the evening hours. Rain intended for areas of Ky late into Friday morning.

After a cold and rainy majority of last week, I bring you good news of some great weather! This week will start off very warm… and yes, most likely rainy. So keep that umbrella handy just in case a shower pops up just as you’re getting out of the car while running errands today. The high pressure setup from yesterday will continue to sit over us for the entire week, but plentiful moisture and a weak shortwave will combine to create a few rainy periods over the next couple days. For the third Monday in a row, South Central KY has a good shot at some rain, this time by way of a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Storms are already firing off around Nashville and Kentucky’s southern border. The good news is, unlike the rain we had the last two Mondays, any rain experienced should be a quick, but possibly heavy, shower. Another round is possible tonight and another on Tuesday around noon. Today’s showers will be lining up right along the I-65 corridor, so rain chances for those living west of Warren County will be lower than those living east of Warren County.  Expect a higher chance of rain and more widespread coverage tomorrow. After that, our biggest weather worry will be wondering how to make the most of the great weather during the last half of the week.

All week long, winds during the day will be around 10 mph and out of the south and southwest, driving hot and humid air into the Commonwealth.

GFS run from 12z Monday depicting Wednesday at 1pm Central Time. Temperatures in the 80s with winds out of the SW. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

GFS run from 12z Monday depicting Wednesday at 1pm Central Time. Dew points in the 70s with winds out of the SW. Courtesy of Pivotal Weather

Today: Partly cloudy with rain chances in the afternoon and overnight hours. Highs in the mid 80s with DPs near 70. Hot and muggy.

Tuesday: Rain chances again around noon. Better coverage expected than today. Not quite as hot, but still reaching into the low 80s and still muggy.

Wednesday: A very slight chance of a shower is possible, but the large majority of the area should be bone dry. The bigger concern is morning fog considering the high DPs, calm winds, and clearing skies Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Be a little extra cautious on that drive in to work. Highs back into the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday onward: Hot for this time of year. Temps will likely be in the upper 80s with lots of radiant sunshine. That umbrella may just come in handy to fend off the rain during the first half of the week and then the intense sunshine later in the week.

Hopefully the thought of a potential October lake weekend will get you through this week!

Last week saw some cool, fall like temperatures along with a lot of rain. Friday and Saturday received thick fog that caused trouble commuting for some.

Photos of the fog Friday morning

Today conditions are much better with temperatures reaching a sunny and warm 83. Skies will remain clear today with the exception of a few popup clouds as a High pressure system passes through Kentucky today.

COD surface observation

The moisture will remain to the south for the day. Peeking in as fog Monday morning and  turning to rain through Tuesday. Total accumulation from Monday and Tuesday will be under a quarter of an inch.

Total rain accumulation from Sunday through Tuesday according to GFS

A light breeze will continue blowing today through Monday from the S to SW. Tuesday winds will come from the SW to the W. Peak winds look to hit about 25 knots or about 29 MPH. Conditions will remain on the muggier side unfortunately as dew points will not drop below 60.

Dew point values according to the GFS

Summary

Sunday: High of 83, Low of 64, No precipitation

Monday: High of 82, Low of 67, Some rain (around .01 in) and fog

Tuesday: High of 81, Low of 68, Some rain (around .15 in)

For our early morning, we see patches of fog return, so if you intend to commute, do so carefully. The culprit for such fog is the cold front that is passing by this morning as well, causing temperatures to fall low enough to match the dew points.

10Z Surface Map (Source: College of DuPage)

A smooth ridge like the one below allows for calm weather conditions. Such allows for strong high pressure areas as you see on the map above. With this in mind…

11Z 300mb heights, winds, divergence (Source: Storm Prediction Center)

Expect nothing more than a sunny day for your Saturday. Today will only get as high as the low 70’s. As we head into game night, temperatures will be in the low 60’s to the upper 50’s as we head towards the end of the game. If you plan on attending, wear longer sleeved clothing and bring a light jacket to keep yourself warm.

09Z RAP SFC Temperatures (Source: College of DuPage)

The same conditions seen today will persist as we conclude our weekend Sunday, with high’s into the upper 70’s, and the lows in the lower to mid 60’s; however, there exists a possibility of rain as we start the next week. Monday afternoon shows a possibility for showers, and as Monday evening, starts, a possibility for rain.

06Z GFS Preciptation Map (Source: College of DuPage)

Summary:

Saturday: Morning fog with an otherwise sunny day; High: 71, Low: 59

Sunday: Nice and sunny; High: 77, Low: 66

Monday: 50% chance of rain, High: 79, Low: 68