WKU Meteorology

Forecast Map for 10/15/16   

It has been an gloomy end to what was a warmer than usual week. Rain moved into Bowling Green in the early hours of Thursday morning, making Thursday considerably colder than Wednesday and we are still feeling the effects of that cold front still with cooler temperatures

We are currently sitting in high pressure with temperatures that we are used to seeing for Fall. As this high pressure persists its going to warm up this weekend, assisted with warm, moist winds from the south. Saturday rain and thunderstorms are still possible for the eastern parts of Kentucky.

Your forecast:

Friday: Cooler for now with temperatures possibly reaching the mid 70s. That is, if the sun burns off the persistent overcast we have. High of 74. Tonight will be a bit warmer at 59.

Tomorrow: Chance of rain is there but it will be much warmer. High of 81 with a slim chance of rain. Low of 60.

Sunday: Sunday we continue the warming trend with a high of 83. Low of 64.

Thanks for reading. I will see you in early November!

WPC 10-12-16 Forecast Map

With a low pressure system just north of Texas that is driving a cold front into our region Wednesday evening into Thursday, we can expect chances of rain and thunderstorms.

The polar jet is starting to creep into the far northern parts of the country with the subtropical jet still over the southern part. This is going to create interesting weather, similar to what we saw in the spring when this same event occurred, just in reverse.

The surface low will continue moving southeast while pulling the cold front through Kentucky. This is what will bring rain. The aftermath will feature cooler temperatures as high pressure sets in. The cooler temperatures are not expected to stay very long.

Tonight: A bit warmer than this morning, 56 degrees. Partly cloudy with rain chances into the early morning hours.

Tomorrow: 20% chance of rain, primarily in the morning with a high of 67. Cooler temperatures as that cold front passes through.

I will be back Friday to discuss what happened and your weekend forecast.

Thanks for reading!

Before I start my forecast for Bowling Green, KY I want to talk a bit on Hurricane Matthew. I know that the other blog posters have talked to great detail on Hurricane so I won’t go too in depth.

Hurricane Matthew was a devastating hurricane that reached Category 5 strength. This means the wind reached at least 157 mph sustained, categorized by the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This hurricane has sadly caused the deaths of over a thousand people along thousands of others being left  without food, water, or shelter. The most devastation has been seen in Haiti, who obtained the bulk of the deaths and damage to homes. The Hurricane was at it’s strongest through the Carribbean Sea. My thoughts are with the people most effected.

Bowling Green has been and is currently seated in a center of high pressure. Keeping skies clear and temperatures warm. The past week has been unseasonably warm for October. Not until Sunday did the temperatures cool to what is typically expected.

With showers and thunderstorms to our west Bowling Green is going to see more beautiful weather over the next few days. Thursday a low pressure system is expected to pass through and may bring rain chances, I’ll talk more on that Wednesday.

As for my forecast

Today and Tonight: More sunny skies with a high of 74 degrees. Tonight will cool down, much like this morning. Partly cloudy with a low of 50 degrees.

Tomorrow:Sunny skies once more, with a high of 76. Wind from our southwest will provide warmer temperatures. Tomorrow’s low is again 50 degrees. So tomorrow morning for your commute, I would recommend a light jacket.

As of today, Hurricane Matthew continues to move along the east coast. It has weakened significantly since its brief peak as category 5 on Sept 30th, and as of today sits as a category 2 hurricane. However, over the past few days Hurricane Matthew was able to break some notable hurricane records.

Category 5 Records
Hurricane Matthew was declared a category 5 hurricane on September 30th, breaking two records as a category 5 before weakening back down to a category 4 and making landfall in Haiti:

• Matthew became the first category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin in 9 years, with the last being Hurricane Felix in 1995.
• Matthew became the southernmost category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic Basin, beating out Hurricane Ivan, the previous record holder.

Longest-Lived Records

• Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean with 84+ hours. The last record holder was Hurricane Ivan in 2004 with 66 hours.
• Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived Category 4-5 hurricane for the entire month of October.
• Hurricane Matthew is the longest-lived major hurricane(category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic Basin that formed after September 25th, with six and a half days.

Landfall in Haiti Record

• Hurricane Matthew made landfall in Haiti at 6 am CDT, which was the first Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the country in 52 years.

Major Hurricane Landfall Drought Continues
The current major hurricane drought record goes unbroken after Matthew. A category 3 or higher hurricane, known as a major hurricane, has not made landfall in the United States since 2005. While the US has seen many notable hurricanes since, such as Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Ike, none have been over a category 3 while making landfall. There was a chance Hurricane Matthew was about to break this 10 year major hurricane drought.  However, Matthew never made landfall along Florida while it was a category 3 or higher. Instead, the storm went parallel along the Florida shoreline.  With the storm now at a category 2 and continuing to weaken, any landfall from here on out won’t be considered a major hurricane landfall. Thus, the record remains unbroken, and the major hurricane landfall drought continues.

After pushing over Haiti and along the eastern coast of Florida, Hurricane Matthew continues to push up the east coast as it weakens. 

As it can be seen above, the NHC is expecting Hurricane Matthew to weaken into a tropical storm by Sunday 2pm, and affect areas no further north than North Carolina. By Sunday, the storm is expected to turn back out into the Atlantic and head south toward the Bahamas as a tropical storm.

An satellite view of Matthew taken from GOES-East on Oct 7th, 1:30 pm CDT: 

This satellite imagery not only shows the impressive scale of Hurricane Matthew, but also shows Tropical Storm Nicole developing in the Atlantic off to the southeast of Hurricane Matthew. According to the NHC, Nicole is not expected to head any further west and instead head north toward Bermuda.

The forecast for Tropical Storm Nicole from the NHC:

The warm trend of this past week will be coming to an end with a cold front pushing through the Bowling Green area, making for a cooler weekend and a cooler start to next week. Interestingly, this fairly strong cold front moving into the area will not be bringing any precipitation along with it. Thus, the skies will remain clear or mostly clear throughout the weekend and even into early next week. After the cold front pushes through the area, we will be met with a large region of high pressure that will keep the skies clear and the temperature stable throughout the weekend.

Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. North wind 3 to 8 mph. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 9 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 47. North wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 70. Northeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. Light northeast wind.

What was Tropical Storm Matthew just a little over a day ago is now a strong Category 4 Hurricane Matthew with maximum sustained winds at 150 mph and central pressure at 945 mb. This is one of the most impressive systems in the Caribbean Sea in several years now, and the strongest since Hurricane Omar in 2008.

Here are some of the latest forecasts and graphics from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

Current Atlantic Synopsis – Courtesy NHC

Hurricane Matthew position and 5-day forecast cone – Courtesy NHC

As you can see above, Hurricane watches have been posted for Jamaica where a possible landfall may occur on the eastern portions of the island Monday afternoon. From their its forecast to continue northward across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

Satellite imagery is looking impressive:

GOES-E infrared imagery – Courtesy of NASA MSFC Earth Science Office

Its worth taking note that Florida will be at risk as well as any jog westward in trajectory will cause worsening weather conditions for areas along the east coast.

Below is a graphic depicting wind speed probabilities of as least 74 mph.

Hurricane-force wind speed probabilities over the next 120 hours – Courtesy NHC

Hurricane Matthew will continue to be monitored by the NHC in the coming days and will be the talk of the meteorological community as well.

Meanwhile, we continue to deal with the upper-level low (ULL) over the Ohio Valley , but its expected to start drift NE out of our area in the next couple of days. Warmer temperatures and lower precipitation chances are more likely as a result.

Also, stay tuned to the High Plains on Tuesday as severe weather is expected there. A negatively tilted trough is approaching from the Pacific Northwest and is going to set-up an atmosphere capable of severe convective weather as a result.

Nonetheless, stay tuned as interesting weather in the mid-latitudes cranks up!

Hey everyone, as the week nears the end, the upper level trend of dominate ridging is phasing out. Temperatures are expected to stay in the low 90s dipping to the mid 60s at night through Sunday. The high temperature for Bowling Green today was 90 degrees according to the Kentucky Mesonet.

500Mb Geopotential Heights Shown to Visualize Ridging over Kentucky (College of DuPage)

Forecast for Weekend:

Tonight: Expect Clear skies and a low around 65 degrees.

Saturday: Sunny and hot with the high temperature around 92 degrees.

Saturday Night: Clear skies low temperature about 64 degrees.

Sunday: Sunny and hot with the high temperature around 91 degrees.

Sunday Night: Clear skies with the low temperature around 63 degrees

Saturday is game day on the hill, enjoy the clear and warm weekend everyone and Let’s Go Hilltoppers!

-Andrew