WKU Meteorology

Temperatures in Bowling Green are slowly on the rise today through Sunday. A slow-moving upper-level trough is making its way across the country and the associated surface low pressure system and cold front will impact the Bowling Green area Sunday. We are currently to the east of the surface low and will be experiencing southerly winds, resulting in a brief warm-up over the next couple days. The low pressure system and cold front is expected to arrive around mid-afternoon on Sunday. The NAM 18z Simulated Reflectivity for Sunday afternoon shows a large area of thunderstorms and heavy rain moving into Kentucky. Make sure to stay updated with this incoming system, as some of these storms could be severe.

This system will drop a lot of rain before it moves out of the region. Precipitation accumulations could be around an inch or more in some places. Temperatures will gradually drop throughout the week as the upper-level trough moves eastward and cold, arctic air is brought in to our area. With that being said, preliminary forecasts for Thanksgiving Day are looking like it will be extremely cold, with daytime highs in the mid 20s and 30s. The GFS 2m Temperature for Thanksgiving Day shows cold, arctic air over much of the eastern U.S.

Have a great weekend!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast:

• Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph after midnight.
• Saturday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. South wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Saturday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind around 8 mph.
• Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 64. Southeast wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Monday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58.
• Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.
• Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 46.
• Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Bowling Green is currently 53 degrees and breezy, with a southerly wind gusting up to 25-30 mph in some areas. Temperatures are definitely warmer than what was forecasted for today due to strong warm air advection and a warm front that passed through earlier today. 18z surface analysis shows the system responsible for this brief warm-up and a cold front that is on its way. This cold front will cool things down, but not nearly as much as the system earlier this week.

For the remainder of the week a developing high pressure system will continue moving across the country, affecting our area. While we are on the east side of this system, we will continue to experience cold, dry temperatures; however, as the high pressure moves to our east, we will start to warm up significantly. Forecasted temperatures for Saturday and Sunday are in the mid 50s and 60s. Southerly winds will bring moist, Gulf air into most of the southeast and we will have a chance for thunderstorms later in the weekend.

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast:

• Tonight: Low around 25.
• Thursday: High near 43.
• Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. Light and variable wind.
• Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.
• Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.
• Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 7am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.
• Saturday Night: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Sunday: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 56. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
• Sunday Night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Currently Bowling Green is 39 degrees and drizzly. An upper-level trough is positioned over the central U.S. and the corresponding cold front an surface low is pushing through the east overnight into tomorrow morning. The cold front should pass through Bowling Green in the next few hours. A surface low  to our south is pumping Gulf moisture into Kentucky and surrounding states, which explains all the precipitation we have been seeing. The NWS Surface Analysis at 21Z is shown below.

The big question with this precipitation is what it will be once it hits the ground. Northern Kentucky is already seeing frozen precip and is at risk for 2-3 inches of accumulating snow. Bowling Green, however, will remain too warm for any snow until early Monday morning when most of the rain has moved out of the area. We are expected to see some accumulating snow, but likely no more than an inch. Timing is key with this system and Bowling Green could see more or less than an inch depending on the arrival of the cold front and the remaining precipitation. The latest NWS snowfall predictions are shown below.

Temperatures will start to cool rapidly once this cold front passes and high pressure will start to move into the region tomorrow. We could see some record low temperatures tomorrow night and wind chills will make the air temperature feel like it is in the single digits in some areas. The NAM 2m temperature map for 6:00 am Tuesday morning shows extremely cold temperatures affecting a good portion of the U.S.

Make sure you are prepared for the coming cold weather. As for the rest of the week, temperatures will remain in the mid 30s – 40s with another possibility for snow toward the end of the week. Check back with us for more information about this on Wednesday!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast (NWS):

• Tonight: Rain and snow, possibly mixed with sleet before 2am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 2am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 31. North wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.
• Monday: Snow likely, mainly before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a temperature falling to around 24 by 5pm. West wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
• Monday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Wind chill values as low as 2. West wind 11 to 14 mph.
• Tuesday: A chance of flurries. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 24. Wind chill values as low as -1. West wind 11 to 14 mph.
• Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. South wind around 9 mph.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
• Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.
• Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
• Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
• Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 36.
• Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.

Colder temperatures have entered our area and it looks like they will stick around for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

This map shows the polar high pressure creeping into our area and it will be sticking around for the next few days bringing temperatures down into the 30s and even the 20s at night. There is no sign of rain/snow for the next few days so the only down fall of the days to come will be the temperature.

Thursday:

High- 36

Low- 22

Wind- NW 10-15mph

NOTE: Winds will make it feel much cooler than what the actual temperature will be. Winds can make it feel up to 10 degrees cooler. Please take that into account when making any plans that involve being outside for long periods of time.

Stay warm until next time!

Discussion:

A weak cold front will be passing through the area tonight(Tuesday) and into tomorrow morning. With the passage of this front, comes a significant amount of rain. Anywhere from 1-2″ of rain is expected to fall by Wednesday night. The rain will not cease at this point. There continues to be a slight chance of rain throughout Thursday as well. This cold front is associated with a low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes Region of the United States. This will continue to weaken as time progresses due to upper level forcing.  Another weak secondary front will form behind this first cold front that will bring the rain chances for Thursday. Once this passes through, temperatures will cool, but the sun will return for Friday. Friday will have the lowest high temperature for the week topping out around 50°. Temperatures will remain in the mid to low 50s for the rest of the week with lows dipping down mid 30s.

Image above courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center showing current frontal positions over the United States.

Week at a Glance:

Tuesday Night: Low of 53°. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall totals between a quarter and half an inch.

Wednesday: High of 58°. Chance of rain 80%. New rainfall amounts reaching a half inch.

Wednesday Night: Low of 49°. Chance of rain 50%. Rain fall amounts of a tenth of an inch.

Thursday: High 53°. Chance of rain 20%.

Thursday Night: Low of 37°. Low chance of rain continues with minimal accumulation. Light wind.

Friday: High of 50 under mostly sunny skies.

Bowling Green is currently 50 degrees with a light northwest wind. It is drizzly outside, as a cold front is just to our north and is providing enough forcing for some light rain showers. A deep upper-level trough is situated over the eastern U.S. and is pulling extremely cold Canadian air down into our area tonight and tomorrow. The 250 mb heights (weather.cod.edu) show the deep trough that will be impacting us over the weekend.

Temperatures will plummet today and  tomorrow when this cold front moves through. There have been rumors of possible snowfall in the forecast for tonight; however, this only applies to eastern Kentucky. Higher elevations east of I-75 could see some snowfall with tonight’s showers, but as for us, we will probably only be seeing light rain and a possible wintry mix as nighttime lows drop to slightly above freezing.  The Simulated Reflectivity for around 10pm tonight shows most of the precipitation occurring east of Bowling Green.

After this system moves through, a strong upper-level ridge will begin moving into the area Sunday and early next week. This will bring a surface high pressure and warmer temperatures in the mid-60s. We’ll see a brief glimpse of winter this weekend, but it won’t last for long.

Have a great weekend and remember to set your clocks back on Saturday night!

Bowling Green’s 5-day Forecast (NWS):

•  Tonight: A slight chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after 9pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. North wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
• Saturday Night: Areas of frost after 1am. Otherwise, mostly clear, with a low around 27. North wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.
• Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 52. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.
• Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
• Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
• Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
• Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 67.
• Tuesday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.
• Wednesday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Wednesday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47.

The leaves are falling and so are the temperatures, at least for this week. Bowling Green is currently 60 degrees and overcast with a moderate northwest wind. An upper-level trough is positioned over the eastern U.S. and the associated cold front sits just to our south which can be seen in the NOAA Surface Analysis from 18z:

Temperatures have dropped significantly since yesterday when we saw a high of 82. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool down throughout the week with a high pressure system moving into the area, bringing sunny skies and cooler weather. The low pressure system responsible for the cold front that just moved through will continue circling to our north and will receive additional upper-level forcing later in the week that will give us another cold front late in the day on Friday. This cold front will bring already decreasing temperatures even lower and we could see temperatures very close to freezing Friday night into Saturday morning

(GFS Surface Temps around midnight Friday)

Enjoy the cooler temperatures this week as we close out October with more fall-like weather. Have a great rest of the week!

Bowling Green’s 3-Day Forecast (NWS):

• Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 64. Light west wind becoming northwest 5 to 9 mph in the morning.
• Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind.
• Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.
• Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
• Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Bowling Green is currently 76 degrees and sunny, with a light southwest wind. These temperatures are almost 10 degrees warmer than the average temperature for late October. According to climatology records, we could come close to breaking the record high temperature of 87 degrees (1919)  for October 27. The latest surface analysis from NOAA shows a nice high pressure system centered over Kentucky, which is responsible for the southerly wind flow here in Bowling Green.

As seen in the figure, a warm front will begin making its way into the region tomorrow and we should see more humid air being funneled into Kentucky. Expect fog in low-lying areas tomorrow morning as low temperatures dip slightly below dewpoint. Tomorrow will be much more cloudy and unseasonably warm with a south wind becoming stronger in the afternoon.

Behind this warm front is an upper-level trough that will bring a low pressure system and associated cold front into the area on Tuesday. This will bring possible thunderstorms and heavy rain Tuesday afternoon. The upper-level trough will stay positioned over the eastern U.S. for most of the latter part of the week until a secondary jet streak begins to provide additional forcing that will deepen the trough even more and bring much cooler temperatures into the area. Until then, here’s what to expect for the early part of the week:

• Today: Sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind.
• Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight.
• Monday: Sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 6 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.
• Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 62. South wind around 11 mph.
• Tuesday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 75. South wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Tuesday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62.
• Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39.