WKU Meteorology

Today has been quite the Sunday, with calm winds, sunny skies, and high temperatures in the low 60’s. This sun has felt great after a period of mostly cloudy skies this past week or so. Tomorrow will feature a few small rain chances, but starting Tuesday, clear skies will be the main story.

A disturbance will move through the area tomorrow morning. Scattered showers will accompany this upper level low, but the best shot for rain will be just to our north and east.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity 10 AM Tomorrow

A cold front will swing through the state tomorrow evening and bring with it another shot for some light showers. Any shower activity will be light and many areas may not see rain at all. Once again the biggest threat for rain will be to our north and east.

NWS Surface Map Monday Evening

Behind that front will be an area of high pressure settling in. This will keep the area mostly sunny and dry for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will remain near average for this time of year. Here is the 6 – 10 day probability of below average precipitation from the Climate Prediction Center, with Bowling Green in the greater than 60% chance for below average precip.

CPC Probability of Below Average Precipitation

5 Day Forecast

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 43. Light and variable wind.

Monday: A 20 percent chance of showers after 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Light northwest wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the morning.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind 3 to 5 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 59.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 38.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 62.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 66.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 43.

The clouds hung around a little longer than expected after that cold front moved through last night.  Tomorrow, however, will be a clearer as high pressure continues to build in from the west and sunny skies become more prominent.  Despite the sunshine, temperatures will not be much warmer.

Map of temperature departure from average courtesy of Intellicast.

We are still under a rather cold air mass, so our high temperatures will once again only make it into the low 60s.  As shown in the graphic above, that is about 10° below what would be considered normal or average for this time of year.  Similarly, our low temperatures are going to be dipping into the upper 30s where they would normally be in the mid-40s.  So, although it may look warm and sunny tomorrow, you will probably want to grab a light jacket because it will be a bit on the cool side.

Surface forecast map for the morning of Monday, October 20th courtesy of Intellicast.

Looking ahead, we do still have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  As shown in the graphic above, a weak cold front will be moving through, but much of the rain will be to our north.  However, there is another high pressure system that will be following right behind it.  So, our overall weather pattern will be much of the same for at least the first half of the week.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 38°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow:  Sunny skies, highs near 62°, and light winds out of the north.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 40°, and calm winds.

It has been a gorgeous day today!  As shown in the graphic below, it is still a rather comfortable 65° in Bowling Green, and high temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the area.  A dry cold front will be moving through this evening, and a drier cooler air mass is moving in right behind it.  So, tonight will be rather chilly, and tomorrow will not be quite as warm today.

High Temperature Map Courtesy of the Kentucky Mesonet

Although it will be a bit cooler, this weekend will still be beautiful!  High pressure is also going to build in from the west and keep our weather clear for a few days.  So, we have mostly clear skies and brisk autumn air to look forward to for the weekend.

Looking ahead, we have a slight chance for showers on Monday.  However, the pattern for the next few days looks to be fairly consistent with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s and overnight lows dipping into the 40s and even upper 30s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Partly cloudy skies, highs near 62°, and winds out of the northwest at around 5-8 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 37°, and light winds out of the NNW.

It has been a rainy first half of the week here in Bowling Green, but it has also been a rainy first half to the month.  We have already had almost 5 inches of rain in just this first half of October, and over half of that fell this week! So, some clearer conditions are definitely overdue.  The good news is that that is exactly what we have in store for this weekend.

250 mb map courtesy of Ohio State University Wx

The low that brought us so many days of rain will continues to become cutoff and push off to the northeast and off the coast.  Then, as shown in the 250 mb map above, a more zonal upper level flow is going to settle in and clear conditions are going to dominate much of the US.  We will have a weak cold front move through on Friday afternoon and evening, but it is not expected to bring us any rain.

Surface map courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center

As we be take a break from all this rain, you will not be needing your umbrella this weekend.  However, you may want to keep your jacket handy.  Our average high temperature for mid-October is 71°.  Tomorrow we are actually going to exceed that, but this weekend we will be back down into the 60s.

Forecast:

Tonight:  Mostly clear skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the south at around 3-5 mph.

Tomorrow:  Mostly sunny skies, highs near 77°, and winds out of the SSW at around 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow Night:  Partly cloudy skies, lows near 48°, and winds out of the northwest at around 3-5 mph.

Bowling Green is currently 66 degrees and cloudy, with the cold front sitting just to our south. This front brought much needed rain to the area last night and even caused slight wind damage in some areas. The Kentucky Mesonet measured a rain total of 0.48 inches from the system that went through last night. Below is a map of the precipitation accumulations due to this passing cold front (Courtesy weather.cod.edu).

Bowling Green will remain cloudy today and is expected to reach a high of 74 degrees. The clouds will begin moving out of the region late tonight and a fast moving high pressure system will make its way across the southern U.S. We’ll be on the cool side of this high pressure tomorrow, with winds coming out of the north and an expected high temperature of 62. It will be a beautiful weekend for being outdoors, so enjoy it while you can! We see our next opportunity for rain chances early next week, as another front moves through the region.

Have a fantastic weekend!

Bowling Green’s Weekend Forecast (NOAA):

• Today: A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 74. Southwest wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.
• Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 40. West wind 7 to 13 mph.
• Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.
• Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 37. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light southwest wind increasing to 9 to 14 mph in the morning.
• Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Bowling Green is currently 80 degrees and sunny. Temperatures will only get hotter throughout the day, as we are expected to reach a high of 87 today. These temperatures are much warmer than normal, but there is a blast of anticipated relief headed our way! Below is the NAM 250 mb wind and height map for early Friday morning. The upper-level trough will begin digging into the lower U.S. more than we originally thought earlier in the week. As a result, we will see much cooler temperatures this weekend when the cold front moves through.

Both the GFS and NAM are in agreement with the timing of this cold front moving through our area. Late Thursday night, the front will start moving through Kentucky and will pass through Bowling Green overnight. Heavy rain and scattered thunderstorms are likely with this cold front. The NAM Simulated Reflectivity for around midnight on Thursday shows the leading edge of the front right on the border of Kentucky.

After this front passes, temperatures will cool drastically. Saturday will be gorgeous with a forecasted high of around 62 degrees and a low Saturday night of around 40 degrees. Below is the NAM 2m Temperature map Saturday morning after the front has passed.

This weather will make for a soggy end to the week and a beautiful weekend! Have a wonderful Fall Break!

Bowling Green’s 5 Day Forecast (NOAA):

• Today: High of 87, sunny.
• Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Light southeast wind.
• Thursday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Light south wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning.
• Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Low around 67. South wind 8 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday: Showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. High near 75. South wind 11 to 17 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45.
• Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 62.
• Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 41.
• Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 69.
• Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Bowling Green hit a high of 83 degrees today, which is slightly warmer than average temperatures for the end of September. High pressure continues to sit over the region bringing partly cloudy to sunny skies for the start of the work week. A weak cold front will start moving into the area on Tuesday. The figure below shows the surface fronts and pressure systems for Tuesday morning. (NOAA)

This cold front will not have much affect on the 80 degree temperatures, nor will there be any precipitation associated with it. The bigger system to keep an eye on is a cold front moving through later on in the week. Models suggest this strong cold front will move across Kentucky during the day on Friday, bringing scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. The 6-10 day temperature outlook shows overall temperatures having a 50% probability of being cooler than normal after this front moves through.

We will keep you posted as this system develops throughout the week and provide more information on the more fall-like temperatures we could be seeing with this system. Until then, expect sunny skies and more 80 degree weather!

Bowling Green’s 5-day Forecast (NOAA):

• Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Light south wind.
• Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon.
• Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon.
• Tuesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 85.
• Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.
• Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.
• Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Friday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
• Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

Discussion:

Forecast:
Sunday has shaped up to be a very nice day with a high temperature topping out at 85°F. A weak cold front passed through the southeast this afternoon which will have a greater chance to change the temperatures for the next few days. The image below shows the cold front that passed through this afternoon and the region of high pressure that will fall in behind it.

The wind has shifted to a northern wind following the passage of the front. This will bring cooler temperatures to the region beginning later tonight and continuing for the next several days. Clouds will begin to form as the sun sets, but should clear by early Monday morning. This cloud cover will keep the overnight temperatures from plummeting into the 40s. Monday morning a broad area of high pressure will set up just west of the Mississippi River. This area of high pressure will keep SOKY under clear skies through Wednesday. The cooler temperatures associated with this trough will begin to be noticeable on Monday with the high only reaching 71°F. Overnight cooling due to these clear skies will bring some of the coldest temperatures seen yet this fall. The layer of clouds that usually keeps the warm air escaping from the ground near the surface will not be around, allowing this warm air to escape and causing the low temperatures to drop to a chilly 43°.

Week at a Glance:
Sunday Night: Low – 51°F with no chance for rain. Light wind out of the north.

Monday: High – 71°F with sunny skies for most of the day. Winds 5-10 mph out of the north.

Monday Night: Low – 45°F with clear skies. Light wind out of the north continues.

Tuesday: High- 75°F under sunny skies. Winds increasing to 5 mph from the NE.

Tuesday Night: Low – 43°F under clear skies. Winds around 5 mph out of the NE.

Wednesday: High – 79°F under mostly clear skies. Low near 52°F.