WKU Meteorology

Days at a glance:

Monday: High – 67  Low – 46  Precipitation – 100% moderate to heavy rain ending completely by noon with peak intensities around 5-7 am.  Winds – 16-18 mph S switching and slackening to 5 mph WNW by midnight  Skies – Overcast clearing out into the evening

Tuesday: High – 54  Low – 31  Precipitation – 20% rain around midnight Wednesday morning (confidence: 30%)  Winds – 12-17 mph W  Skies – Clear becoming mostly cloudy to overcast into the evening and around midnight

Wednesday: High – 46  Low – 29  Precipitation – 20% rain around midnight Wednesday morning (confidence: 30%)  Winds – 17-21 mph W  Skies – Partly to mostly cloudy

Discussion:

The warm temperatures in the low 70’s we experienced earlier this weekend will reappear shortly into tomorrow before colder temperatures return. A frontal boundary is currently stalled in an east-west orientation across our area. This is the stalled cold front from the beginning of the weekend. Precipitation has been mostly light, but persistent along this boundary today as southerly winds across the deep south bring moisture into the area. With temperatures currently at 42 F in Bowling Green, precipitation will stay in the form of rain as temperatures will remain in the 40’s and warm through the night due to warm air advection preceding tomorrow’s cold front. Rain will taper off overnight as an approaching low pressure system lifts the warm front to the north of our area. Temperatures will rebound nicely into the low to mid 60’s tomorrow under cloudy skies before a cold front sweeps through the area around 3-5 pm. Precipitation associated with this front will come much sooner around early to mid-morning hours before moving out by noon with 5-7 am being the hours of peak intensity. Due to the timing in the early morning, lack of wind shear, and marginal instability, the threat for severe weather will be low with small hail and damaging winds as the primary threats. Widespread and persistent rain will be the main story. Overall, rain amounts could reach up to 1 inch in our area with .65 of an inch as the baseline by tomorrow afternoon.

NAM 9Z (4 am) 3/18 Composite Reflectivity. Notice the precipitation beginning to reach our area in association with the cold front.

Monday night, skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall at or below freezing. Tuesday will be a nice day with a high in the low 50’s. The second feature of concern is a clipper system affecting our area around midnight Wednesday morning. Current sounding profiles for that time are not very promising for anything other than a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Since the temperature will be close to freezing and it is still a few days out, updates will be issued if conditions change.Wednesday will have a high in the mid 40’s with partly cloudy skies.

Forecaster: Austin Boys

The first half of the week has been chilly with an occasional snow or rain shower.  Generally highs have been in the 40s to low 50s. A welcome sight to most however is on the way…. warmer weather! A trough has been in place across the Ohio Valley and much of the eastern United States most of this week and thus temperatures have been cool.  The trough will break down and be replaced by a zonal flow across the nation.  This along with the return flow around a high pressure system near the gulf coast will allow temperatures to warm.  It may be hard to believe since we currently sit in the 30s but we’ll climb to a high in the low 70s tomorrow!  Saturday will also be warm with highs in the 60s, however a cold front will move in during the evening bringing temperatures down Saturday night and into Sunday.  This front will stall out over our area and will be a focal point for rain from Saturday evening though Monday.  The rain won’t be continuous during this time put rather there will be waves of rainfall.  Rainfall isn’t expected to be excessive despite the longevity.  Generally around an inch of rain is expected through Monday night though more may fall in localized areas as a result of a few thunderstorms.

WPC’s forecast QPF or precipitation totals through Sunday afternoon. A clear east-to-west line of heavier precipitation can be seen from MO through KY thanks to the stalled front in the area.

By Monday the stalled front in the area will be pushing back to the north as a warm front just ahead of a low pressure system and cold front which will move through Monday afternoon. At this point in time it does look possible that there could be some storms and some severe storms cannot be ruled out. However confidence in the severity is low at this point as we are still several days out.

By Monday around 1 pm CDT the GFS is clearly showing a strong low pressure system over the upper-Midwest. Furthermore warm moist air is being brought in from southerly winds around this system creating an environment in which storms are possible across south-central KY.

Nevertheless at least be aware that storms are possible Monday and that further monitoring is necessary as to whether any of these storms will be severe. By Tuesday the cold front will have moved through allowing conditions to clear and temperatures to cool down.

————————————————————————-

Potential Severe Storms Monday… Update (11:26 am Friday)

The Storm Prediction Center has, since the writing of the forecast above, placed all of central Kentucky and Tennessee under an area with the risk of severe storms for Monday afternoon. As more data comes in we will continue to monitor and update you on the severe weather potential. For now at least be aware that Monday has the potential for severe storms.

An area of heightened severe storm potential has been outlined over the areas in red for Monday.

——————————————————————–

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy by morning.  Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 30s and may warm to near 40 by morning. Light SE to S winds.

Friday: Partly to mostly sunny with increasing clouds in the late afternoon.  Warm with a high near 72. Breezy with WSW winds from 8-15 mph.

Friday Night: Partly to mostly cloudy with a low near 56. 30% chance of a few showers. Southwest winds from 8-14 mph.

Saturday: Some peaks of sun early before becoming mostly cloudy to even overcast during the afternoon. 30% chance of a few showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon.  Winds from 8-15 mph and switching from the WSW to the NNW through the day.

Saturday Night: 70% chance of rain especially after midnight. Low near 45. 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. Northeast winds from 5-10 mph.

Sunday: 60% chance of scattered rainfall with 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall possible. High in the upper 40s to near 50.  Northeast winds from 8-14 mph.

Monday: Low in the upper 40s with a high in the mid 60s. 60% of scattered showers in the morning with thunderstorms possible by the afternoon.

Unseasonably warm temperatures have been welcomed to southern Kentucky this weekend.  Temperatures rose to the low 70s for the first time since late January.  Normally highs should be in the upper 50s for this time of year!  The warmth has been thanks to an upper-level ridge in place over the Ohio Valley.  This has placed a High pressure system to our southeast and a low pressure system and cold front off to our west.  Sitting between these pressure systems has place southern Kentucky in the return flow area which means southerly winds have been bringing in warm and moist air.  Those southerly winds have been strong at times with gusts in excess of 35 mph!

The aforementioned low pressure system and cold front which is now located from Missouri to Texas is pushing east and will be bringing with it heavy rainfall which will start this evening.  A few scattered showers or sprinkles are possible before midnight but most of the heavy rainfall will move in around midnight and continue through midday tomorrow.  The rainfall will be steady to even heavy at times.  In total 1 to 2 inches of rain is likely across all of south-central Kentucky with most of that falling between midnight and 9 am.  After the rainfall moves out tomorrow around midday, skies will remain cloudy and temperatures will continue to cool behind the passage of a cold front.  Temperatures will start in the mid to upper 60s at midnight but will fall through the 50s during the day with 40s by 6 pm tomorrow.

WPC’s QPF precipitation forecast valid overnight through tomorrow.

Beyond tonight and tomorrow’s weather maker much of the rest of the week looks to be fairly quite.  An upper-level trough pattern will works its way in behind this system which won’t allow temperatures to warm back up very quickly.  In fact highs will likely be in the 40s on Wednesday.  Along with the trough some minor disturbances will pass through the Ohio Valley which will bring some clouds and the occasional chance of a sprinkle/flurry primarily Tuesday evening.  Looking on to the later part of the week and on to the weekend, it seems as though the trough will push to our east and a ridge and high pressure system will again move in bringing with it temperatures near 70 again by Friday and Saturday.

Daily Forecasts:

Tonight: Rain, which could be heavy at times.  Temperatures will start in the mid to upper 60s but will fall into the 50s by morning. South winds from 10-15 mph.  Rainfall between 0.75 -1.5 inches.

Monday: Rain likely in the morning ending around midday.  Otherwise cloudy with temperatures cooling from the 50s into the 40s by mid-afternoon. WSW to west winds from 8-16 mph. Total rainfall between 1 and 2 inches (including overnight rainfall).

Monday Night: Cloudy skies could become partly cloudy at times by morning. Light westerly winds with a low near 31.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny becoming partly to even mostly cloudy in the afternoon/evening.  High near 54. West winds from 8-14 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly to partly cloudy; a sprinkle/flurry cannot be ruled out early. WNW winds from 6-12 mph. Low near 31.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny but cool with a high in the mid 40s.  Northwest winds from 5-12 mph.

Thursday: Cold start with lows in the upper 20s.  Mostly sunny with highs in the low 50s.

Good Friday everyone! Weather conditions have been absolutely great across the Commonwealth as temperatures have continued to warm over the past couple days. After a cold, wintry start to the week, a spring time ending for the weekend looks like a real possibility as surface high pressure and upper level ridging will take hold of our area!  Satellite imagery indicated some lower level stratus clouds earlier this morning  but have since thinned out leaving mostly sunny skies with temperatures reaching the low 50’s over Bowling Green.

300 mb Heights and Winds map, Valid for Saturday 15Z. Upper level ridge builds over much of the Eastern U.S. as our next trough amplifies to the west over the 4-corner region. Red arrows indicate areas of difluence showing favorable areas for rain and storm development over the Central Plains.

Looking ahead for tonight, clear and cold conditions are expected as the surface high keeps skies generally clear through the evening and overnight hours.  Lows will drop into the low 30’s here in Bowling Green with slightly colder temperatures in the upper 20’s the further north and east you live.

Colder temperatures will kick off our day tomorrow, but should rebound nicely throughout the afternoon as Saturday looks to be the warmest day of the week! Highs in and around Bowling Green will give a spring tease to many as temperatures flirt with the low 60’s across the region.  The highly amplified upper level ridge axis will continue its progression towards the Mid-Atlantic by Saturday night, as we should start to see some higher cirrus clouds work their way in ahead of the next system moving through.  Upstream troughing will continue to amplify  over the Central United States with a spit flow. This will translate to a rainy period beginning late Saturday night while extending into Monday.

—————-

Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a 20% for showers.  Low: 47º. Winds from the south 5-10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy, with a warm high of 65º. Chance of rain, 50%. Winds from the south 15-20 mph, with gust up to 30 mph.

Conditions for your Sunday are expected to clear out nicely as cold but sunny skies prevail.  Morning temperatures have reminded many that winter is hanging tough with lows dropping into the upper 20’s across south-central Kentucky.   A weak shortwave is currently passing overhead as the responsible trough will act to clear out the remaining flurries and embedded snow showers across the region.  A decrease in intensity/coverage is expected with the progression towards our east through the late-afternoon hours.  Skies should continue to clear from west to east as temperatures struggle to reach the mid 30’s for today.

Monday, we’ll begin to turn our attention towards a surface low that will begin to organize during the morning hours as an upper trough digs southeast into the Great Plains.  Isentropic lift associated with the northward advancement of the warm front will help generate bands of light precipitation across the Mississippi Valley tonight, before moving eastward into our area by tomorrow morning.  A light mix is expected although chances for precipitation will be very light as temperatures will warm up quickly over south-central Kentucky.  Highs are expected to reach the low 50’s over our area with temperatures in the upper 40’s towards our north and east.  Conditions will begin to change as we head into the evening and overnight hours.  An elongated trough with an axis extending from parts of North Dakota through central Missouri with an increased southerly flow ahead of this system will help increase moisture values through the overnight hours. This moisture, accompanied by a region of strong isentropic lift passing through will allow a good shot for precipitation as our area could see moderate to heavy rainfall.  Low temperatures across the area are expected to drop into the upper 30’s, low 40’s under mostly cloudy skies.

HPC’s QPF map valid for Tuesday 0Z showing a light-moderate rainfall event over the Ohio Valley Region.

——————

Tuesday: Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Southeast winds 5-10 mph. New rainfall amounts 0.10” – 0.25” expected. Chance of precip. 70%

Tuesday night:  Rain transitioning to snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind 10-15 mph.  Chance of precip. 60%

Wednesday: Rain/snow ending. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precip. 30%

Wednesday night. Mostly cloudy and colder. Low near 29.

Thursday: Sunny and warmer.  High near 49.

Recent meteorology graduate Nathaniel Shearer has accepted a position with the Air Force as a Weather Officer, becoming the first WKU Meteorology graduate to follow that career path. Nate will begin his career by attending Officer Training School at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. Read more about Nate here.

I hope everyone enjoyed the sun today, because that all is going to change this week.  There is a system out to our west right now that is going to move to the east causing us to see some rain, sleet, and snow this week.

Right now, we are under high pressure.  That will move out of the way for a low pressure system to make its way in.  Also, a cold air mass will make its way down causing our temperatures to make a 15 degree drop by Wednesday.

 While the low pressure system comes in, it will bring with it some rain ahead of the front, and as the front passes we will see some rain/snow mix.  This could cause some iffy conditions as we head through the end of the week.

If you look at the top right, there is a low pressure system moving east and the 540 line, which is the indicator of snow, still has us under rain, but as the low moves off then we will likely see some rain/snow mix.  Some accumulations are possible.

Monday: Sunny skies will continue through the morning, but as we head through the afternoon we will see increasing clouds.  Highs in the mid 50s.

Monday Evening: Showers will likely return and temperatures will be in the low 40s.

Tuesday: Rain is likely with temperatures in the upper 40s.

Tuesday Evening: Rain will start to mix with snow and this could cause icy conditions through the night and into Wednesday morning.

Days at a glance:

Thursday: High – 46  Low – 21  Precipitation – 30% chance early rain showers with the impending warm front, totals will be less than .25 inch  Winds – N switching to E early 12-16mph  Sky – mostly cloudy with clouds increasing into the evening

Friday: High – 62  Low – 41  Precipitation – 100% chance rain showers associated with the warm front early and mid-morning  Winds – S 13-17 mph switching to NW 6-9 mph late evening  Sky – Overcast throughout the day, with clouds beginning to thin late evening

Saturday: High – 46  Low – 31  Precipitation – 0% chance  Winds – W 5-8 mph  Sky – mostly sunny

Sunday: High – 51  Low – 27  Precipitation – 0% chance  Winds – SE 5-8 mph  Sky – sunny

Discussion:

Today was a beautiful, but chilly day with blue skies and a high of 35. Bowling Green is currently at 26 degrees, with clouds rolling in from the west. With clouds, the low tonight will stay above 20. Tomorrow will be a slightly warmer, but cloudier day with a high in the middle 40’s. Winds will be out of the east, switching to southerly around midnight. This is preceding the disturbance mentioned in the previous discussion and will keep the low above 40. Throughout tomorrow night into Friday morning, clouds will increase with showers also increasing into Friday. This is due to a warm front with precipitation ending into Friday afternoon. Expect precipitation to be light to moderate in intensity and persistent in the early and mid-morning hours before tapering off.  Precipitation will be in the form of rain since temperatures will be in the low 40’s and rising as the front passes with totals less than one quarter of an inch.

Forecast surface analysis for Friday morning at 6 am CST. Notice the showers over our area associated with the warm front to our south

Later in the day around 5 or 6 pm, the cold front will pass with little precipitation expected. With that said, clouds will persist throughout the day. After the cold front passes, winds will shift from the northwest as cold air filters into our area into Saturday. Saturday and Sunday will be nice, but on the chilly side. Enjoy the fantastic weather this weekend!

Today was a beautiful day with a high of 44 and blue skies.  Tonight’s low will slip into the upper 20’s under mostly clear skies. A brief warming trend will begin tomorrow throughout the day with southerly winds predominating. High’s will get into the upper 50’s and maybe 60. This is preceding a cold frontal passage late tomorrow evening around 10 pm. Available moisture and instability will both be minimal, giving low confidence for organized precipitation. Regarding precipitation type, models are keeping surface and near-surface temperatures above freezing during the time of expected precipitation, giving high confidence for rain. With intensity, the surface low will  be to the north near the Great Lakes. This increasing distance may lessen the strength of the front as it passes our area.

Considering amount, models are calling for upwards of three quarters of an inch. The earlier stated weakening front, minimal moisture, and lack of instability lower my expectations to under half an inch. Given it is a cold front, any precipitation that falls will be relatively brief, but intense. It should be hit or miss. Half an inch will be my upper threshold. After the passage, temperatures will drop and remain on the chilly side for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another brief warming trend will commence Thursday ahead of a more promising disturbance Friday. There will be mid-week details regarding this feature.

Days at a glance:

Monday: High – 59  Low – 27  Precipitation – 80% (.35 inches rain)  Wind – S increasing throughout the day up to 20-24 mph then switching late to NW 13-15 mph  Sky – clear with clouds gathering into the evening

Tuesday: High – 43  Low – 31  Precipitation – 10% residual rain from cold front  Wind – NW 11-13 mph  Sky – cloudy skies becoming clear by afternoon

Wednesday: High 39  Low – 21  Precipitation – 0%  Wind – NW 5 mph switching to N and E late  Sky – clear

After a very nice Thursday with sunny skies and a high near 60 a cold front will be bringing a change in temperatures to the state.  Currently a trough is centered over the central US with a few disturbances riding through.  Furthermore there is a surface low pressure over the Great Lakes and the aforementioned cold front extending to the south moving into Kentucky.  With these small disturbances and the trough moving into Kentucky much colder air will spill in from the northwest which will set up a chilly weekend.

Surface map indicating the Low Pressure near the Great Lakes and the cold front bringing in cold air (blue arrows) into KY for this weekend.

Temperatures especially on Saturday will be as much 10 degrees cooler than average.  These disturbances moving through will bring increased cloudiness  and there will be a chance for an occasional sprinkle/shower or flurry especially on Friday.  By Sunday afternoon these disturbances will move off to our east as a ridge of high pressure moves toward the Ohio Valley/Mid-south region.  This will provide for a brief warming trend by Sunday with some clearing especially Sunday afternoon.  The next big weather maker for area looks to be sometime in the Monday-Tuesday time frame when showers and possibly a few storms will move through.

Daily Forecasts:

Friday: Morning low near 35.  Cloudy with a 30% chance of a shower, a few flakes could mix in.  Chilly with a high near 44.  Northwest winds from 5-10 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy with occasional clearing.  Cold with a low around 25; light NNW winds.

Saturday: Chilly and mostly cloudy; high near 36.  Northwest winds from 8-14 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly to mostly clear and cold with a low near 21.  5-10 mph winds switching to the WSW.

Sunday: Partly cloudy with a high near 46. South to southwest winds from 6-12 mph.

Monday: Morning low near 32; daytime high near 58.  Partly cloudy becoming cloudy with a chance of rain and possibly thunderstorms by the afternoon.