WKU Meteorology

Another day of storm chase in the books. This day was quite tricky, however, we managed to make the best of it.

The Set-Up

Our day, once again, started out in Amarillo, Texas. The surface observations were showing a stationary front extending from the northeast corner of the Texas panhandle going northeast into central Kansas. The winds throughout Texas were warm and strong from the South and the moisture was high, as well. The 12 Z run for the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model was showing a dry line strengthening and propagating right over the New Mexico-Texas state border any where from 19-20 Z (2 – 3 pm CDT). Along with the dry line, the intersection of the stationary front and the dry line was another point of interest when considering our target for the day.

The Chase

The group packed up and left soon after the forecast discussion. In the van, we decided to head north toward Dumas, Texas. The storms were just beginning to develop in the far west Texas panhandle, which gave us enough time to visit Los Potrillos Mexican Restaurant. The food was great and the service was impeccable.

We also met Corrina; she remembered the storm chase group from 2017.

After lunch, we went drove out of the lovely city of Dumas and watched a storm roll in. The lightning was the best part about this storm.

The storm started weakening and another storm in far southeast Colorado caught our eye. We merged onto the highway and headed for the Campo, Colorado supercell. The visibility was improving tremendously, which lightened our spirits for this chase day. In fact, the air was so clear, we could see the storm while we were 50 miles away.

We met the Campo storm near Manter, Kansas. The storm had widespread rotation and looked like it could tighten up at any moment. Our route around the storm consisted of dirt roads that occasionally looked like loose, sandy roads. We maneuvered with the storm and stopped just east of it to watch what it would do. The next radar scan came in, and the rotation was tightening up but the hail was also moving toward us. We started driving around the storm away from the hail and kept our eye on the rotation. A nice funnel formed for seconds and nearly made it half-way to the horizon.

We watched the storm move away and decided to head for our hotel in Garden City, Kansas. We arrived to the hotel relatively early and headed for a nice relaxing dinner at Old Chicago.

Today was a calmer day for the storm chase group; it was pretty light in travel for us. Also, we spotted a rainbow to top Day 7 of chase off.

Our morning began with a forecast discussion in Shamrock, TX. We knew that our travel distance wouldn’t be as long, so we were able to have a relaxed morning.

Atmospheric Setup

When we went to bed on Thursday night the SPC had a slight risk area extending from Texas to the Great Lakes. During our forecast discussion on Friday morning, our main focus was on the dry line that extended southwest to northeast across the south central part of the panhandle. An upper level low was located over Montana and North Dakota, which was a bit of a change from the atmospheric setup that we had been dealing with earlier in the week. That upper low had continuously gyrated over the western US but has now moved on and is making way for the next wave to come through. The 500mb winds had backed off quite a bit but a large ridge over the Gulf states coupled with the negatively tilted trough over the northern US sandwiched the pressure gradient and caused a jet streak over the central Plains.

At the end of our forecast discussion, we decided that the best environment would be on the south side of the dry line. We felt that this area was where moisture convergence, CAPE, and low level lapse rates were the most conducive for severe storms. Our goal was to stay along that boundary and follow any storms that fired along it. Later in the afternoon the SPC upgraded an area within the south central part of the Texas panhandle to an enhanced risk.

The Chase

We began our drive from Shamrock, TX and started heading toward Lubbock, TX. Visibility was slightly better as we chased our first storm between Floydada and Crosbyton, TX. This storm had visible rotation and created the most beautiful sight as we drove past a canyon and could see the base of it.

We moved southeast and positioned ourselves to the west of Dickens, TX. We encountered quite a bit of hail from this storm and then moved back into Crosbyton, TX to wait for the next cell to move through. While in Crosbyton, we encountered major flooding. The roads were covered, ditches were turned into moving waterways, and the fields had standing water with ripples going across them. Grass was not visible on much of the land and runoff soil led the water that was coming off the fields and onto the road. We concluded our chase day in Crosbyton and decided to head toward Amarillo for the night in order to be closer to our target for Saturday’s chase.

Conclusion of the Day

On our drive back to Amarillo at the end of the day, we got to see beautiful mammatus clouds in Plainview, TX.

We checked into our hotel in Amarillo and then walked across the parking lot to have dinner at Bubba’s 33. While waiting for our table we got to watch a beautiful sunset. As usual, dinner was filled with good food, good company, and plenty of laughs. Check back tomorrow for another update. Thanks for following along with us!

We started our Thursday morning by packing up and leaving Claremore, OK at 8 AM. We also parted ways with David Oliver ( Director of Environmental Health and Safety at WKU) and Dr. Tim Caboni (WKU President). Over the course of 3 days, we traveled just over 1500 miles with the President across Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.

We had a general idea that storms were going to be in the Panhandle of Texas, but this area is much bigger than most people think. After conducting a forecast discussion in the van, it was determined that our target would be Pampa, Texas.

Atmospheric Setup

The Panhandle of Texas was expected to be an area of severe weather. The upper level jet streak has backed off a little bit, but still brings upper level divergence/low level convergence to that area. A stationary front was draped west to east across the northern portion of the Texas Panhandle, and the north to south dry line was situated directly over the Texas/New Mexico border. The Panhandle would have plenty of instability, wind shear, and moisture, as the strong low level jet helped pull in deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. These ingredients, converging on the boundaries, helped initiate storms west and north of Amarillo. Pampa, TX was our target because we felt that storms would initiate west of Amarillo, and move into a better environment just east where they could develop into supercells. While we were driving to our target, the Storm Prediction Center upgraded the Day 1 Convective Outlook to a Moderate Risk (Level 4 of 5) for the area just east of Amarillo, which was in perfect agreement with our target.

We stopped for lunch in Shamrock, TX, and ate at the Roost, a popular local restaurant. We continued to our target, and then waited for storms to initiate.

Chase

Our first storm of the day was just to the north of Pampa, TX. We chased this unorganized supercell for quite some time. Fortunately, flood roads were not a problem today, and the chaser convergence was a little more spread out over the Panhandle. We continued to chase this storm as it was southeast of Spearman, Texas. We were able to take a sturdy dirt road, and drove within a few miles of the cell.

This location brought a nice view of the approaching storm, as seen below.

We continued to chase the storm northward all the way up to Perryton, TX. This is just south of the TX/OK border. Again, this cell produced very ominous clouds, and we sat and watched.

We had trouble with visibilities again. Wall clouds and possible tornadoes were rain wrapped, and when blocked by a curtain of rain, makes it very difficult to see anything. We had several velocity couplets that suggested a possible tornado, but we could not see it. But, overall, it was still a great chase day. The forecast verified that our target would be the location of severe storms. We saw some ominous clouds, ran along side tornado-warned storms, and saw a lot of incredible lightning.

End of the Day

We finished chasing near Canadian, TX, and decided to get a late dinner at the Stumblin’ Goat. We then drove south to Shamrock to spend the night.

Thanks for following along on our storm chase trip. Make sure to follow @wkustormchase on Twitter for current updates.

January 26th-28th marked the 10th anniversary of what Governor Steve Beshear described as the worst natural disaster in modern Kentucky history. This storm knocked out power for over 2 million people, caused dozens of deaths related to cars or improperly used generators, and closed schools a week or more in some places. It dropped between a 1/4″ to 2″ of ice over a span of hundreds of square miles and ended with snow accumulations upwards of 4-6 inches for already hard hit areas. Those located further north and not impacted as much by the ice saw snow accumulations of 10+ inches, such as in southern Indiana.

A few facts about the weather set-up/requirements for this storm:

There was sub-freezing air over the Midwest and Central plains for a couple days before the event. This primed the roads and power lines and most surfaces in general for ice accumulation. The cold air remained in place at the surface (between 29 and 33 degreees Fahrenheit for most places), while warm air began to move in around 5,000 feet above the surface. This warm air was associated with a stationary front from the South that stopped right around Central Tennessee. Because warm, moist air is less dense than cold air, it literally ran up and over the cold air at the surface. As the air mass is forced higher in the atmosphere, it expands and cools, the water vapor condenses on tiny particulates in the atmosphere, and eventually becomes to heavy to stay up there. This air between 700mb and 850mb was about 5 degrees Celsius (freezing in Celsius is at 0 degrees), thus the precipitation fell primarily as super-cooled rain. Even though it passed through about 5,000 feet of sub-freezing air, it didn’t have quite enough time to change over to sleet or snow. All it took was that frozen surface for it to immediately freeze on impact.

Here are some pictures provided by the National Weather Service in Louisville along with maps generated to show ice and snow accumulations throughout the state.

Most meteorologists become interested in studying the weather for one of two reasons: either they had a bad experience with weather and want to learn how to predict it and protect themselves in the future, or they saw a storm and fell in love with the majestic beauty that simultaneously produces destruction. I am personally the second type, which totally makes sense because I tend to live life on the edge. People like me stand outside and watch the storm roll in up to the point the it is basically on top of them…and sometimes we stay outside through the whole thing while telling others to take cover. It’s these same people that get hyped up about going on the Storm Chase class that Dr. Durkee and WKU offer during the first month of every summer. Let’s take a little look into what the school has to offer for those that live life on the edge!

What do they do: CHASE STORMS! But first, you have to forecast them. Students wake up bright and early in whatever place they landed the previous night and get together for a forecast discussion. This discussion is student led with a different person taking lead each morning. Students will use their forecasting skills to pick a few target areas and then narrow it down to the area with the best ingredients for severe weather as a team, under the watchful eye of Dr. Durkee of course. He tends to allow students to run much of the discussion, but he will take the van where he wants to if students have made an blatantly incorrect decision. Besides hoping to find storms, each trip is filled with lots of Subway for lunch and great local eats for dinner. By the end of a long day, students crash in their hotel rooms, sleep for 5-6 hours, and do it all again the next day. Expect to travel over 6,000 miles by the end of the trip (with Dr. Durkee doing 100% of the driving).

When: Students must carve out the first 4 weeks of their summer. This 2-week class is dependent on an ever changing variable, so don’t expect to know what 2-week period you will be going until late in the Spring semester.

Cost: Because it’s a class for 6 hours of course credit, it does cost quite a bit. For in-state students, each credit is about $450, but out-of-state students have to pay $1,100. This amounts to over $3,000 for in-state students and about $7,000 for out-of-state students once food and some other expenses are factored in.

Financial Aid: Don’t run away from that financial storm just yet, because students and organizations can get scholarships from the Student Government Association for trips and research experiences such as this if you write a good enough application. Dr. Durkee also goes out of his way to set-up fundraisers such as cookouts and donation programs to help reduce the hit on students’ bank accounts. While it does look like a lot (and it is), there are reasonable steps you can take to get yourself in that van and out to the Great Plains!

Quotes from the students:

“We were able to make our own decisions, and I feel that by having a class structured in such a way really allows for a growth in confidence that’s difficult to find anywhere else.” -Cait French, Class of 2018 and Storm Chase participant in 2018.

“Storm Chase really was a once in a lifetime experience….Storm Chase really helped me become a more accurate forecaster and helped with understanding concepts in the classroom as well.” -Carson Meredith, Class of 2019 and Storm Chase participant in 2018.

“Honestly,words can’t describe how excited I am to go on Storm Chase. These next two weeks…are going to be the best two weeks of my life!” -A very excited Luke Rodgers, Class of 2020 and upcoming Storm Chase participant who leaves this Saturday.

As noted in the quotes, it’s a nearly indispensable experience. But no matter how hopeful someone is when he/she signs up, anything can happen. Don’t let unmet expectations destroy your love for severe weather if you don’t get to chase a tornado, and don’t sign up a second time just because you got to see more than a dozen. Every trip is different, and the group dynamic will change from year to year. The selection process is also complex, so don’t hesitate to reach out to other meteorology schools or go with some friends! College of Dupage offers 4 10-day trips each year between April and June (June 13th-23rd still has 8 available spots!). Visit https://weather.cod.edu/chasing/index.php?load=chases# for more info. And if you want to avoid to lab fees and cost of credit hours, go with some friends for dirt cheap. Granted, you won’t have the expertise of a well-seasoned teacher to look to for guidance, but you can do things in a manner that is a little less structured (while still never neglecting to do it safely). No matter what option you choose, have fun and live life on the edge!

Wow it is going to get warm over the next couple of days! That heat will be brought back down though as rain moves into the area tomorrow night. That rain looks to remain in the area until Sunday night.

Another thing to keep in mind is that winds will be higher tomorrow night and Thursday. Thursday could see gusts as high as 29 mph.

• SUMMARY:
  • Tuesday:
    • High: 82
    • Low: 56
  • Wednesday:
    • High: 85
    • Low: 69
    • A 20% chance of showers will roll in in the later part of the night.
  • Thursday:
    • High: 76
    • Low: 62
    • Showers will fall throughout the day and night. Gusts could reach as high as 29 mph.

Good luck to everyone on their exams and stay safe going home!