WKU Meteorology

As today officially begins the fall season, the region will continue to experience late summer weather. As the week comes to an end, temperatures will continue to be pleasant and as we enter the last weekend of September a small chance of rain will show.

Today September 23rd, 2015: High 84

Pleasantly warm weather will dominate the region today with humidity a little higher than earlier this week; but definitely not the air you can wear. Skies will tend to be clear throughout the day but some clouds will be present.

Tonight: Low 57

Skies will clear throughout the evening and into the night allowing the temperatures to drop just below 60 degrees.

Tomorrow: High 88 Low 60

Get out and enjoy the sunshine while you can! Clear skies throughout the day with some cloud cover at night. An extremely pleasant day for your Thursday.

Looking Ahead:

Friday: High of 79, Low of 60. Cloudy skies will give way to periods of rain showers throughout the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: High of 80, Low of 59. Chance of rain early in the day, then staying cloudy for the remainder.

Sunday: High of 80, Low of 60. Bits of clouds and sunny skies throughout the day.

Monday: High 84, Low 60. Mostly sunny skies.

Tuesday: High 85, Low 58. Sunny skies.

In a nutshell:

The upcoming weekend presents great opportunities for outdoor activities besides Saturday morning. Enjoy it!

Quick Overview:

As we enter the last few days of summer we will continue to see temperatures average for this time of year in Bowling Green. Looking towards the week ahead; pleasant late summer weather will grace us. No significant rain events are forecasted for this week as of now, humidity for the region will be pleasant as well as the temperatures; a little chilly, but pleasant, for the nights

Today September 21st, 2015: High 80

Today will be a great day for outdoor activities as we remain in the high pressure system that has been over the region since the weekend. Temperatures in the low 80’s with clear skies. Not too hot, not too sticky, and mostly sunny for the day.

Tonight: Low 50

Skies will remain clear throughout the evening and night which will allow temperatures to drop into the low 50’s.

Tomorrow September 22nd, 2015 High: 82

High pressure will continue to dominate the region keeping temperatures mild and skies clear; yet another great day to be outside. Dew point temperatures will be low keeping the air relatively dry and pleasant.

Tomorrow Night: Low 55

Skies will be clear yet again with temperature in the mid 50’s.

Looking Ahead:

Wednesday: High of 87, Low of 57, beginning to warm up, but not a scorcher. Clear skies throughout the entire day.

Thursday: High of 87, Low of 60, continuing to be milder throughout the day and night but keeping clear skies.

Friday: High of 86, Low of 58, skies becoming partly cloudy: still an excellent day to be outside.

Saturday: High of 85, Low of 56, skies clear.

Sunday: High of 83, Low of 56, clear skies once again.

In a nut shell:

This is a fantastic week to be outside and enjoying the weather, as well as great weather if you want to sit outside and star gaze. Get outside and enjoy it!

This Evening: Low- 65

We have warmed nicely into the upper 80’s today under clear to partly cloudy skies. More in the way of partly cloudy conditions look to move in as the night moves on, as a weak cold front gets closer to the area.

Tomorrow: High-85 Low-59

A weak cold front looks to push through the area from the northwest late tomorrow morning into early tomorrow afternoon. Due to limited moisture ahead of the front, only isolated to scattered showers and storms look likely with its passage in the area. No strong to severe weather is anticipated with this activity.

Sunday: High-76 Low-53

Surface high pressure looks to move into the region behind Saturday’s weak cold front for our Sunday. This looks to result in very comfortable temperatures and dewpoints accompanied with sunny skies. Our Sunday will definitely be the pick day of the weekend!

Weekly Outlook:

This Evening: Low-56

Afternoon temperatures today in the low to mid 80’s, coupled with mainly sunny skies, have made conditions beautiful to be outside once again!

Tomorrow: High-85 Low-60

As an area of surface high pressure stays centered to our east over the Mid Atlantic region and keeps us in a southerly flow, we should expect our Thursday to basically be a carbon copy of today temperature and sky cover wise. So, tomorrow will be yet another seasonable and mainly sunny day!

Friday: High-87 Low-65

Our Friday looks to offer up temperatures a little above normal for once as that high pressure system stays out to our east, and is allowed to pump in more warmth and moisture. Clouds look to be on the increase late Friday afternoon through Friday night, as our next cold front approaches from the northwest. This front will push through our area  during the day on Saturday, only accompanied with very small precipitation chances. More about the Saturday forecast will be discussed below in the Weekly Outlook section.

Weekly Outlook:

This Evening: Low-52

After a chilly start to the day, temperatures have rebounded quite nicely all the way into the upper 70’s. These temperatures combined with the ample sunshine have really made today a very nice day to be outside.

Tomorrow: High-83 Low-55

As an area of surface high pressure moves off to our east, temperatures look to warm a few degrees for our Tuesday. These forecast temperatures in the low 80’s combined with sunny skies will make tomorrow yet another great day to be out and about.

Wednesday: High-85 Low-62

Temperatures for our Wednesday look to warm even more from Tuesday as that previously mentioned surface high moves even further to our east, allowing for a southerly flow to develop over our region. Clear skies are yet again expected for our Wednesday, and this in conjunction with these forecast temperatures look to make Wednesday another great day to get outside.

Weekly Outlook:

This Evening: Low- 48

Today has been the coolest day we’ve had in a while. We’ve been having a few showers throughout the afternoon. Our high was in the mid-70’s. There’s a chance for scattered showers this evening.

Tomorrow: High- 70  Low- 47

NWS National Forecast

Monday: High- 80  Low- 53

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Low- 63

Today was definitely cooler than it has been over the past week. The cold front that came through yesterday brought in much needed rain and cooler temperatures. We saw a high temperature of about 89 today, which was a welcome relief.

Tomorrow: High- 80 Low- 57

We have another chance for rain tomorrow afternoon starting in the afternoon. A good majority of the rain will hit about 4pm, according to the current NAM runs. The cause of this is another cold front moving through the area on Friday.

NWS National Forecast

NAM Simulated Radar Activity

A second line could form from some of the scattered showers behind the main line around 10pm, according to the NAM and other forecasts. These should begin to work their way out overnight and leave us with a dry Saturday morning.

NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity

Saturday: High- 68 Low- 50

Today: High- 98° Low- 67°

Today was and still is a very hot day here in Bowling Green, KY.

NWS National Forecast

The dominating high pressure forced for mostly sunny skies in the region. Fortunately, the system is moving on to make room for a cold front that could possibly bring us some rain!

 Wednesday: High- 86° Low-66°

Tomorrow is showing promise for a cool down as the cold front moves in and brings with it a chance of rain.

NWS National Forecast

According to the NAM, we should start to see spotty showers around 6am Wednesday morning. The main line of rain should move in soon after. We will have to keep an eye out for precipitation amounts as the ground could be unable to absorb the full amount of rain at that time.

NAM Simulated Radar Reflectivity

The greatest chance for rain will begin in the late afternoon/ early evening, so make sure to take your umbrella with you for the commute home.

Weekly Outlook:

Tonight: Increasing clouds, with a low around 69. South wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 68. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Friday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 73.

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 51.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 55.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 83.

Saturday May 30th:

The last two days of our trip was packed with fun. The group woke up in the city of Denver, CO on Saturday. With a lull in severe weather, we decided to take the day to sightsee through the state of Colorado. We visited the famous Red Rock Amphitheatre, which is 10 miles west of Denver. Many music enthusiasts dream of attending a concert at Red Rock.  Red Rock hosts many famous musical artists of all genres in an open air amphitheatre.

The students enjoying their music and geology lesson at the Red Rock Amphitheatre

After spending time at Red Rock, the group departed west to ascend into the snow capped Rocky Mountains. None of the eight students have ever visited the mountain range, so this was a first for many. After climbing to almost 12,000 feet above sea level the students got out of the van and enjoyed the snow in the middle of May.

Panorama of the view of our first stop in the Rocky Mountains.

The group standing near an open ski resort in the Rocky Mountains.

After our first stop we made our visit to the Continental Divide.

Students at the Continental Divide.

After making our stop to the Continental Divide, and taking a chance to throw a few snowballs, the group decided to make a stop in Golden, CO to eat lunch at a delicious Middle Eastern restaurant.

After lunch we had to start pushing eastward in order to deliver Dr. Grady Dixon back to his family in Hays, KS. We arrived in Hays right before Dusk, and ate supper at a local dive.

Picture with Dr. Dixon before we gave our final goodbyes.

After supper the group pushed eastward to Salina, KS in order to get a head start for the next days trek to Bowling Green, KY.

Sunday May 31:

The group awoke in Salina, KS and became home bound around 9am. After a long few hours in the van, the group stopped for lunch in Columbia, MO and met up with a fellow WKU Meteorology and Storm Chase Alumni, Ryan Difani.

The group with alumni, Ryan Difani at a Dairy Queen in Columbia, MO.

After lunch, the group was over halfway home! But before getting back to Bowling Green, the group stopped for a tasty supper at Taco Johns in Henderson, KY. After finishing supper, the group arrived back in Bowling Green at 9:30 pm.

In summary the group traveled 7,191 miles through nine states over the time span of two weeks.  We observed several types of storms such as high precipitation supercells, low precipitation supercells, classic supercells, and squall lines. We also saw accumulated hail and two tornadoes! Although forecasts were difficult and frustrating at times, the trip itself was successful and enjoyable for the entire group and proved to be a good learning experience for everyone.

Today proved to be difficult in terms of an obvious forecast, but we took advantage of several opportunities to travel and explore new areas for our trip across the southwest US and document even more severe weather. We had a couple of different options for our target area; one being the southwest Texas panhandle near Snyder, TX where outflow boundaries and other thunderstorm ingredients were present, and northeast New Mexico between Clayton and Des Moines. This region favored convective activity throughout consistent model runs on the HRRR and NAM 4K, our favored high resolution models.

We voted on heading to New Mexico this morning after a lot of debate, due to the fact that despite lower instability and moisture values, upper-air support favored thunderstorm activity on the leeward side of the mountains in this region. Below is a surface analysis that covers a few fundamental forecast variables we discussed.

Surface analysis showing observations valid at 1200 Z and upper-air diagnostics valid for 0000 Z today.

Red dashed lines show the locations of two outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorm activity, and the arrows show the general direction and magnitude of jet stream flow across the area. Our two initial target areas are shown by the stars.

Northwest flow across the panhandle is that primary reason we decided to head northwest and take advantage of the photogenic landscape of the High Plains. Turns out convective models were correct in their output throughout the day and we had several opportunities to grab some very scenic views in NE New Mexico.

The view of the landscape in NE New Mexico as we made our way to our selected target

A great bit of luck allowed us the opportunity to explore the Capulin Volcano, where we were able to view a severe thunderstorm producing hail and gusty winds from over 8,000 ft in elevation! This was very enjoyable because we got to hike up to the top of the rim and look into the caldera of the extinct volcano, what a view!

View from atop the Capulin Volcano in NE New Mexico

After departing from the Capulin volcano, we drove through the northern portion of New Mexico and entered Colorado where we saw the beautiful snow capped Rocky Mountains. After driving along the interstate for sometime, convection started coming off the mountains and of course we decided to chase it!

Second storm we chased for the day north of Trinidad, CO

This cell soon fizzled out and we kept trucking along towards the city of Denver, our stop for the night. Before reaching Denver, more storms initiated to our northeast and we chased them. The first one fizzled out before reaching it. The second one produced 4-6 inches or more of accumulated hail and made the Colorado countryside look as if it were covered in snow!

Hail along a roadway in central Colorado

After plowing through over 4+” of hail accumulation, it was time to fuel up and head for our hotel south of Denver, CO where we were able took look back on our day, and our trip in general. The atmosphere seems to be quietening down for tomorrow, which will likely be used as a day travel, and any observations of storms along the way. We’ve had a very busy couple of weeks in The Plains and have seen many different forms of severe weather.

Stay tuned to @wkustormchase on Twitter for live updates throughout our journey and see what we may get ourselves into tomorrow! – AS, MM