WKU Meteorology

Multiple clusters of storms one over middle Tennessee near Nashville  and other over eastern Arkansas and western Tennessee are prompting tornado warnings and some of the storms are showing signs of rotation. These potential tornadic storms will approach the region overnight. Be prepared to seek shelter if a tornado warning is issued. updates will be provided on this link overnight. I will be updating this link till 2 am then the STN director Ronnie leeper will be updating the site after 2 am.

MWG

Around 3 inches of rain has fallen today which has already created some difficult travels with water covered roads. Thunderstorms should die down in the next hour or two. In Bowling Green we had 12 straight hours with the observations rain, hvy rain or a thunderstorm not sure what the max streak for consecutive hours is at Bowling Green for that.

However even though a lull is expected this evening, “a chance to study for my dynamic final on Wednesday” supercells are firing in Arkansas in response to the next impulse traveling northward along this stalled frontal boundary. The storm prediction center has increased the severe risk to moderate for the region overnight as these storms head toward Kentucky. Instability which has been in check all day may become more favorable for severe storms overnight according to the latest modeling . Tornadoes, small hail and gusty winds will be the main threat with overnight thunderstorms. Make sure you have a way to be notified if a tornado warning is issued overnight.  These storms will become more linear tomorrow morning and be very slow to move through the region tomorrow with more training of heavy showers and storms expected. This will lead to another flood threat by days end which should be more widespread than today.

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This is a  special saturday morning update. The cluster of storms I’m labeling round 1 has moved further south than anticipated stalling in Tenn. to the north of this thunderstorm complex heavy rain showers have been training over southern Kentucky resulting in widespread 1-2 inch totals already. This thunderstorm complex could lift back to the north this afternoon if this is the case more excessive rainfall is likely. thunderstorms may be severe as well with gusty winds and small hail and isolated tornadoes. The storm prediction center is highlighting areas just to southwest for another high risk event/ severe outbreak where instabilty values are more favorbale for severe weather. Over our region I’m expecting a similar outcome to last week that these storms will weaken below severe limits as they move toward Bowling green where the atmosphere is more stable.

looking at the new model guidance the nam initialized poorly leaning future forecasts in the direction of the gfs today.  I’m still expecting up to an additional  inch through tonight with another 2-4 inches of rain tomorrow.

forecaster: MWG

– flash flood watch in effect – slight risk of severe storms Saturday and Sunday Continue reading →

1.  Our region will be on the backside of a high and ahead of a strong slow moving cold front Thursday and Friday this will lead to increasing southerly winds which could be very gusty with a strong low level jet in place. The strong southerly winds will also transport lots of gulf moisture north into the region moisture will also being streaming in from the pacific ahead of the next frontal boundary. This front should begin to spread to spread showers and thunderstorms into the region by Friday night but as it does so the eastward movement will slow as it encounters resistance from the eastern ridge. Highs will likely range from 77-84 with warmer overnight lows as well. Continue reading →

Highlights
– clouds and light rain linger today
– another batch of showers likely Tuesday but sunny Wednesday

Continue reading →

As of mid-week the models weren’t looking to good for storm chances this weekend. Well that has since changed dramatically and SPC now has our area under a moderate risk for severe weather. With a moderate risk comes the potential to see some pretty nasty weather; everything from damaging winds, flash flooding, hail, to possible tornadoes. From the models it looks like the greatest threat is going to be to our southwest, but if cells do develop in this region then there is a good chance those cells could head our way. The severe potential also depends on the timing of things as well, such as when convective initiation actually occurs and if a rain band develops out a head of the severe cells. If this happens the band could decrease the instability and lessen the chance for a severe threat. As of now it does seem that some discrete cells may initially fire but look for them to form into a squall line as the day progresses. The squall line can still be dangerous and still have tornadoes embedded in it. For the big picture of things. There is currently a High pressure sitting off the coast of Florida in the Atlantic helping to bring in warmer air and moisture  to are region. In the upper levels there is a nice trough swinging through that appears to be carrying a bowling ball. When the setup resembles the bowling ball you can usually expect some severe weather associated with it. There is plenty of lift both synoptically and via mesoscale. Low level jet strength coupled with the upper level jet will provide enough shear to get storms potentially rotating if they do develop. As of now it appears the main threat will be into the afternoon hours of Saturday. If anything changes dramatically I will update the blog. Just remember to be safe tomorrow. Thanks for reading the WKU met blog

Today is going to be the best day out of the whole week. Today will be very nice with mostly sunny conditions and a high near 72. Today winds will be light and out of the southwest. This evening we can expect a low temperature of around 48. As of now the models are showing Thursday to be mostly cloud with a 50% chance of rain overnight on Thursday. The rain chances are due to a very small amount of vorticity that is coming down into our area via the polar jet. Right now there is split flow between the two but models show the sub-tropical and polar jet merging over our area tonight(Wednesday). This merger will provided the small piece of vorticity with enough moisture, from the gulf, to give us our 50% chance of rain on Thursday night. Thursday high temps will be near 73 with a low around 52. The models are showing Thursday nights weather carrying over into Friday as well. As of now rain chances for Friday are 50% with a high near 77 and a low near 57. Saturday could also bring some rain our way, but I will discuss that on Friday when the next blog comes out. Have a great rest of the week and get outside and enjoy today if you have a chance.

If you were hoping  for some excitement in the weather this week then you are going to be disappointed.  Today we can expect a mix of clouds and sun with a high reaching near 68 with a light northeast wind.  Overnight clouds will increase and temperatures will drop down to around 45. Tuesday there is a slight chance of rain as a small lobe of vorticity passes right over our area.  The NAM is keeping the rain a little further south while the GFS has our area receiving a little rain. If we do see rain it will be light. Right now I would say chances are around 30%. Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with highs reaching near 70 and a low of 45. Hopefully on Wednesday we will see a little more sun. Also, it looks like there may be a bigger rain event  headed our way late in the week into the start of the weekend. Come back Wednesday for your midweek update. As always thanks for checking Western Kentucky’s Met blog.