Stormy Sunday

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

A weak mid-latitude system will make a pass today, bringing rain and thunderstorms, with a chance for storms to be severe. The below map shows a widespread slight risk for severe thunderstorms, which means these storms might have low coverage and varying intensity.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)

The main threats for this day are wind and hail damage; nevertheless, a tornado is always possible. These storms may have the largest impact for the afternoon and making a pass through the eastern parts of Kentucky and Tennessee for the evening. Highs for Sunday in Bowling Green can reach the mid-upper 70’s, and lows in the mid 50’s.

11Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

For Monday, there will still be morning showers, but it will remain cloudy for the rest of the day. Highs can reach the mid 70’s, and lows will be in the upper 50’s. Tuesday could be cloudy as well, with some clearing for the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 70’s and lows in the lower 50’s.

Forecast:

Sunday: Rain and thunderstorms, a few storms may be severe; High: 76, Low: 55

Monday: Morning showers, otherwise cloudy; High: 74, Low: 57

Tuesday: Cloudy in the morning, clearing for the afternoon; High: 75, Low: 52

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A Change in Pattern for the Weekend

If you are out driving this morning, please take care and precaution, for there will be fog for the Saturday morning commute. Otherwise, enjoy a sunny day, for a high pressure field centers itself just over Kentucky.

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

Highs for Saturday will be very enjoyable in the mid-lower 70’s, and lows will be in the upper 40’s. Sunday will see some storm action, and severe weather may return to the mid-South. These storms might be the most intense for the afternoon hours of Sunday. Highs for Sunday could be in the mid 70’s, and lows could reach the mid 50’s. Monday could see similar patterns in the morning, but then it might clear up for the afternoon. Highs for Monday will reach the upper 70’s and lows will be in the mid 50’s.

6Z GFS SLP and Precipitation (Source: College of DuPage)

Forecast:

Saturday: Foggy morning, otherwise Sunny; High: 74, Low: 48

Sunday: Thunderstorms, a few maybe severe; High: 75, Low: 56

Monday: Morning rain/t-storms; High: 77, Low: 55

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Bringing Back the 80s and We’re Not Talking About the Decade!

We were definitely socked in the clouds today and we won’t be breaking out of them for at the least the overnight hours as some higher clouds, represented by the brighter colors in the imagery, start to move in from the west.

GOES- East Satellite Infrared Imagery valid for 9pm CDT

Set-Up:

A stalled out frontal boundary to our south with start to lift northward as a warm front throughout the day tomorrow helping to usher in some much warmer temperatures as well as moisture content. Most of the day on Saturday remains dry. We’ll have to watch out for scattered shower chances out ahead of the approaching warm front. By Sunday we will be well established in the warm sector. Depending of how much sun we will see, storms could be a possibility Sunday evening out ahead of a approaching cold front from the west. Temperatures on Sunday will be flirting with the 80 degree mark for the first time this season! Some of the storms on Sunday could be strong to severe if the instability is able to establish itself over the region. Confidence for strong storms is low at this time. Here is the 0Z(7 pm) run of the NAM model’s depiction of how Sunday COULD unfold.

0Z NAM Simulated Composite Reflectivity valid for Sunday morning around 4am CDT.

Showers possible early Sunday morning ahead of that warm front. The showers should clear out shortly after sunrise keeping a small part of the day dry. Showers and storms return, however, by early afternoon.


0Z NAM Simulated Composite Reflectivity valid for Sunday afternoon around 1pm CDT.

Shower and storm chances hang on for the start to the workweek as another system approaches from the southwest dragging across the TN Valley through the day on Monday.

36 Hour Forecast:

Tonight: We hold onto the clouds overnight with lows falling into the low 50s. Calm winds.

Saturday: Partly cloudy skies with temps in the upper 70s across the region. Winds light out of the SW.

Saturday Night: Scattered showers late with lows staying in the upper 50s. Winds light out of the SW.

Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds out of the S at 7-13 mph, gusting at times to 23.

Stay weather aware this weekend by following these Social Media Accounts:

@wkustormteam @WKUweather

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Rain Chances are on the Increase

Good afternoon folks!

A shortwave trough noticeable at 500mb is currently over the eastern Great Plains and will continue to move east into our area heading into tonight. As the small disturbance moves our way, it will bring along with it the chance of some showers. It’ll be soggy for most of overnight hours and gradually clear as the disturbance moves east.

Heading into tomorrow, the rain will be well east of the area and it will dry out. The area will remain under cloud cover. Temperatures during the day will stay in the mid-to-upper 60s.

High pressure will begin to settle into the western parts of the Ohio Valley heading into Friday night and Saturday. Saturday will be absolutely gorgeous with partly sunny skies and highs around the area reaching the low-to-mid 70s.

A more active pattern will setup heading into Sunday as an upper-level trough builds in from the west, allowing the winds to shift to a more southwesterly flow. This will allow more moisture and instability to move into the region. Confidence is still low on the severe weather threat on Sunday, because we are four days away. But as time progresses and we move closer to Sunday, things can definitely change so tune into the WKU Meteorology Blog or WSWX for further updates.

Tonight: Showers likely, mainly between 9pm and 5am. Cloudy, with a low around 54. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming light southeast after midnight. 

Friday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 75.

Sunday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78.

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Rain Chances on the Way!

It has been a beautiful start to the week! Warm temperatures and sunny skies made for quite a nice past few days. But here comes the rain again!

0Z NAMNEST Simulated Reflectivity: Now Until Early Saturday Morning

0Z NAM Precipitation Type: Now Until Early Saturday Morning

With the pleasant weather as of late, tree pollen has been pretty high. For all those with pollen allergies, Thursday night will be a relief! Models (such as the ones posted above) are all in agreement with a pretty decent rain for this area Thursday evening into Friday early morning. A good night to sleep with the windows open!

0Z NAMNEST Surface Temps

Before the rain, Thursday will be warm again! We could see temperatures climb to the lower 70s before the rain arrives in the evening. However, as the model above is hinting at, cooler temperatures are expected for Friday following the rain.

There could be a chance for a few thunderstorms this weekend, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest from our blog!

Thursday: High of 71, Low of 50 and Rain in the Evening

Friday: High of 65, Low of 52 and Early AM Rain

Saturday: Clear and Warmer, Middle to Upper 70s Possible

Sunday: Chance for Thunderstorms?

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Spring Weather Will Turn Rainy Again

Good afternoon everyone! I hope you all are enjoying this gorgeous day as temperatures hit 60° and flowers are in bloom. Satellite imagery shows little to no clouds around the area.

Thankfully we still have tomorrow to enjoy the weather before a cold front moves in with rain and possible storms.

Rain will arrive for Thursday with the majority falling in the afternoon hours to Friday morning. Most of the models have a quarter to half an inch which looking at the data I would agree.

  • SUMMARY:
    • Tuesday:
      • High: 61
      • Low: 42
    • Wednesday:
      • High: 70
      • Low: 45
    • Thursday:
      • High: 68
      • Low: 54
      • Precipitation: 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain with most of it falling in the afternoon and at night.

Stay safe and have a great week!

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Cool Start to the Work Week

A cold front has moved through this past weekend bringing back much cooler temperatures. Fortunately, we will see temperatures back in the 70’s by mid week. We will also see lots of sunshine for the start of the work week, thanks to a high pressure system currently sitting on the northern KY/ Ohio state line. Plan for this high pressure system to move out relatively quick before another moves in from the south (currently located in Texas).

As for today, expect another chilly day filled with sunny skies. Tuesday we will warm a bit getting back into the lower 60’s. We will stay clear until mid week when the next low pressure system, bringing rain, makes its way back into our region. The only issues there could be moving into tomorrow is the formation of frost. As dew point readings are expected to be in the mid 30’s tonight and the low likely to be in the lower to mid 30’s, frost is possible. Remember to protect any plants/flowers that may be important to you.

FORECAST

Today (4/01): Mostly sunny and chilly
High: 54
Low: 34
Tonight: Mostly clear with frost formation possible overnight

Tuesday (4/02): Mostly sunny and warmer
High: 62
Low: 39
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear

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A Cold but Sunny Conclusion

A strong cold front has passed, bringing us in the mid thirties this morning;nevertheless, it will be a beautiful Sunday. With a high pressure field centered over in Kansas, this will be ensured.

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

However, Sunday will not see spring-like temperatures this afternoon, for highs will only reach the mid 40’s. Lows for Sunday will be in the upper 20’s for it will be a clear night. Monday will see a continuation to the sunshine, with highs in the low 50’s, and lows in the mid 30’s, but it will get cloudier as the day progresses. Tuesday will have a cloudy start, but will see clearing for another sunny day. Highs for Tuesday will be in the mid-upper 50’s, and lows in the mid-thirties.

6Z GFS Average Cloud Cover (Source: College of DuPage)

Forecast:

Sunday: Sunny and cold; High: 48, Low: 27

Monday: Increasing cloudiness for the afternoon; High: 50, Low: 34

Tuesday: Clearing for the afternoon; High: 58, Low: 37

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Another Stormy Saturday

We are heading into a wet weekend for the last few days of March. Thunderstorms are going to make a pass throughout the mid-South for our Saturday. The below surface map identifies a stationary boundary crossing Indiana and Illinois which can take off as the low pressure field in Michigan gains strength. Storms will mainly be in the afternoon hours as well.

Surface Observations (Source: College of DuPage)

These thunderstorms also have a chance of being severe when they arrive. However, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama face a slight risk for severe weather. For us in Bowling Green, there is a marginal risk for severe weather. For more information regarding these risks, check out this website.

Day 1 Convective Outlook (Source: SPC)

As said before, storms will pass through in the afternoon and continue into the evening. Highs for today will be in the mid-upper 60’s, and lows in the lower 30’s.

11Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)

Once the cold front makes its pass through Kentucky, Sunday will be sunny, but noticeably colder, with highs in the upper 40’s, and lows in the upper 20’s. Monday will warm up slightly and continue the sunny trend, with highs in the upper 50’s, and lows in the lower 30’s.

Forecast:

Saturday: 100% chance for afternoon thunderstorms, High: 67, Low: 33

Sunday: Sunny; High: 48, Low: 28

Monday: Sunny; High: 57, Low: 33

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Spring Temps Get Knocked Down, But They Get Up Again!

Those 70s across the region yesterday felt amazing! They also showed us that those spring-like temperatures are starting to show themselves (It’s about time!). Spring showers are on their way for the weekend but will not overstay their welcome. They will, however, help with our deficit of rain for the month just a tad at least.

Local Climate Report for Bowling Green, KY valid 03/28/19

Weekend Set-Up:

A frontal boundary to our north has stalled out across the OH Valley which allowed a couple of sprinkles to fall this afternoon. A low pressure will move into the Great Lakes region throughout the day tomorrow bringing more shower and thunderstorm chances for the early afternoon and evening hours. The instability ahead of the cold front looks good enough to support a line of strong to severe storms. The main threats associated with these storms are brief heavy rainfall, isolated damaging winds, and an isolated tornado is not out of the discussion. After the passage of the front, temperatures will dip into the mid-upper 40s for Sunday. Overnight lows Sunday will fall into the mid-upper 20s with a hard freeze in many areas possible. Make sure to take necessary precautions including covering up any outside plants that are exposed to the cold temperatures. There is good news regarding the temperatures, however, as we should see them start to recover over the upcoming workweek!

HRRR Simulated Reflectivity valid for 19Z (2pm) Sat 03/30/19.

NAM Simulated Reflectivity valid for 0Z (7pm) Sat 03/30/19.

36 hr Forecast:

Tonight: Isolated showers possible with lows bottoming out into the upper 50s. Wind out of the S at 9 mph.

Tomorrow: Showers and Thunderstorms Likely. Some storms could be strong to severe. Highs top out in the low 70s. Winds will be gusty out of the SW at 14-20 mph. Gusts could be as high as 31 mph.

Tomorrow Night: Showers and Thunderstorms ending before midnight. Lows will fall into the low 30s. Wind out the N at 11-18 mph.

Stay weather aware tomorrow by following these Social Media Accounts:

@wkustormteam @WKUweather

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