Today will be cold, wet, and miserable. On and off showers will plague Kentucky for the next 12 hours. Since we are on the other side of the low-pressure system, we will get wrap-around precipitation, which is persistent, but nothing too intense.
Watches and Warnings Map (Source: NWS Louisville)
With persistent rains, there is always the possibility of flooding, but as of now, it might not be much of a problem for the Bowling Green area. For updates, visit the National Weather Service in Louisville’s website. Fortunately, these rains will end overnight Sunday, bringing in a wonderful surprise for Easter. Highs for today will be in the mid-40’s, with lows in the upper 30’s.
Easter will be sunny and much warmer, with highs in the upper 60’s, and lows in the upper 30’s. A cold morning and a warm afternoon will allow for a relaxing Easter egg hunt.
Forecast:
Today: 100% chance of rain, High: 46
Tonight: Showers this evening, clearing overnight, cold; Low: 38
I hope everyone is having a good day today! There was a bit of a chilly start this morning but it quickly warmed up. The next few days will remain pretty warm with temperatures in the upper 70s and even 80 for Wednesday. We can thank the southerly winds for these temperatures! Do keep an eye out today through Thursday night as it will be pretty breezy! This afternoon could see winds peak at 16 mph. Keep a good grip on your ball cap! Tomorrow looks to be a little lighter but not by much as winds peak at 14 mph. Thursday will hold the highest winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph according to the National Weather Service. Now what does all this mean in terms of everyday life? Here’s a chart showing what winds can do at different speeds.
Today and tomorrow you’ll want to keep a good grip on any papers in hand but it won’t be too bad. Thursday’s winds could cause large branches and even the whole tree to sway. With this does come the possibility of trees coming down as well as power lines so keep an eye out for potential power outages.
The good news is we have been downgraded to a marginal risk for severe weather. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean we couldn’t still see something severe. Right now it looks like we will get around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain during the day Thursday with the majority of the rain falling at night. It’s expected that one to two inches will fall at night.
Overall it will be nice a nice start to the week we’ll just have to deal with some more rain and storms later on. Everything will clear out Saturday night to leave a beautiful Sunday. The grass could still be a little too soggy for Easter egg hunts but otherwise it will be a great day!
SUMMARY:
Tuesday:
High: 79
Low: 56
It will get pretty windy towards the afternoon.
Wednesday:
High: 80
Low: 60
We will start seeing more clouds roll in for Thursday’s showers and storms. It will remain fairly breezy.
Thursday:
High: 74
Low: 50
It will be pretty windy with winds peaking at 32 mph. Showers and storms will likely start in the afternoon hours and continue through Friday. Storms could have the potential to be severe especially with the high wind gusts.
Stay safe and have a great week!
I hope everyone has a great Easter!!
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on Warm Start With a Wet Finish
Many of you woke up this morning to chilly temperatures on your way out of the door. This can be thanked, in large part, to the cold front that moved through late yesterday. As seen below, much cooler temperatures have swept through much of the southeast the past 24-hours. As for today, expect a pleasant day with temperatures on the cooler side of things. By this evening we will have a high pressure system move right over the Tennessee/Kentucky region bringing with it much warmer temperatures Tuesday and the rest of the week. This high will also allow us to stay dry and see plenty of sunshine for the next few days.
24-Hour Temperature Change (NOAA)
This high pressure system will make its way from our southwest into the Ohio valley region (by tonight) before being forced out by another low toward the end of the week. We can enjoy a few days of great Spring weather before the next system moves in Thursday. This next system has potential of causing some severe weather, so make sure to check back in to see what you can expect.
GFS 6z
FORECAST
Today (4/15): Mostly sunny and a bit cooler High: 62 Low: 45 Tonight: Mostly clear overnight
Today’s storm set up is more towards the East, but chances for storms here in the mid-South are at a minimum, but possible. The cold front seen above will steadily pass through, stimulating storms for the East. Aside from a stray shower, Bowling Green could see some partly cloudy skies, with highs in the lower 60’s, and lows in the mid 50’s.
Sunday’s Severe Weather Outlook (Source: SPC)
The main hazard’s for today’s severe weather watch is wind damage, and hail. Tornado chances are slim but not out of question. A line of storms will pass through this afternoon.
12Z RAP Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)
Monday will see a continuation of sunshine, but the morning will be chilly, and we might see some fog as dew points will sink into the 30’s. Highs will be in the mid 60’s, and lows in the mid 30’s.
Forecast:
Sunday: Partly Cloudy, 10% chance of stray storm; High: 64
We make a return to severe weather for our weekend; however, it will have to wait until the evening and overnight hours for those in Bowling Green as the place to look at is down in Louisiana. It may not be shown explicitly, but the low pressure center lies over central Texas on the above surface map. This low pressure system will move northeastward and will deliver the storms to the mid-South. Why is Louisiana the place to look at today? The map shown below shows a moderate risk for severe weather that covers the northern part of the state. Louisiana shows the highest risk for tornadoes, at 15%. The chances for wind damage is nearly a coin toss, and hail chances are also significant. For more information, visit the Storm Prediction Center.
Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook (Source: SPC)
Louisiana and some parts of the Bible Belt will expect to see the greatest chances of severe storms in the late afternoon, where a line of storms and some isolated cells will pass through. The storms have a very high chance for damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes. I urge that you seek shelter when they arrive.
6Z NAM NEST Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)
As discussed before, the storms will move into the mid-South for the evening and overnight hours. Keep the chances for damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes in mind when you go to bed tonight. Highs for today will be in the upper 60’s for the Bowling Green area, with lows in the mid 40’s.
6Z NAM NEST Simulated Reflectivity (Source: College of DuPage)
The storms will continue for Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon, with highs in the upper 60’s, and lows in the lower 50’s. Otherwise, it will be mostly cloudy with clearing overnight.
Today: Cloudy; 20% chance for rain and thunderstorms in late afternoon. High: 64
Tonight: 100% chance for strong to severe thunderstorms; Low: 45
The clouds continue to thin out and even clear in some places across the region thanks to the departing frontal system that also brought our cooler temperatures.
IR Satellite imagery valid for 10:02pm CDT
The low pressure that brought the rain to the region this morning is currently wrapping itself up and dissipating. This system brought some high snow totals by April’s standards to parts of the northern midwest.
Set-Up:
For us here in the commonwealth however, the weather will be much calmer and warmer at least for now. Saturday we will the clouds increase yet once again ahead of the next frontal system ejecting out the Texarkana region. The frontal system will bring showers to our region by late Saturday evening. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible with some of the more vertically developed convection.
The main show, however, will head our way Sunday with multiple rounds of storms. Some could be strong to severe. The main threats associated with these are large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out with the impressive shear values over the region.
HRRR Simulated Reflectivity Valid for Sunday @ 1am CDT
36 Hour Forecast:
Tonight: Lows in the 50s under mostly cloudy skies.
Saturday: Isolated shower chances for the early afternoon with highs in the upper 60s.
Saturday night: Showers and Thunderstorms likely after 9pm. Lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Sunday: Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon with highs in the mid 70s. Winds out of the S at 15-18 mph gusting at times up to 30.
Make sure to stay weather aware this weekend by following these social media platforms:
Taking a look at the current surface observations across the area, temperatures are still sitting around the 80-degree mark with dew points rising a little into the middle 50s. The current surface observations are showing much of the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys in the warm sector, out ahead of the approaching surface low, centered over NW Iowa. This low will continue to push off to the NE into Minnesota and eventually into the southern part of Ontario, dragging a cold front behind. This cold front will eventually make its way to our area.
Figure 1: COD Surface Analysis
Lets play a little game called, “Who can point out the center of low pressure and its fronts?”
Figure 2: COD Surface Analysis (Drawn in fronts/pressure center)
As we head into the late evening and early morning hours, LLJ (Low-Level Jet) at 850mb will kick into gear with winds racing in from the SSW at around 40-50 knots. Why is this concerning, because this will aid in the development of thunderstorms. The LLJ provides extra moisture and lift for thunderstorms to tap into and aid in development.
As the LLJ ramps up, better forcing associated with the approaching cold front will move into the area early in the morning on Friday. Model guidance is indicating that a line of thunderstorms will move through the area sometime early Friday morning. The threats associated with this line are low, but you can’t rule out some areas within the line to produce strong winds and some small hail. Wind shear values (wind speed and direction changing with height) across the area are low, making the tornado threat quite low. Model guidance is also indicating at some pre-frontal convection developing across the area thanks to the strong surge of moisture coming in from the south.
Figure 4: COD NAM Composite Reflectivity 09Z FRI APR 12
Showers and remaining t-storms will move out of the area as Friday progresses leaving behind a mild afternoon with skies becoming mostly sunny with high hovering around the 70 degree mark.
Heading into Saturday, moisture will begin to return into the area from the south ahead of another approaching storm system. This system will cut across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. A couple rounds of soaking rain with embedded thunder will move through the area during the evening and overnight hours on Saturday. Highs around the area on Saturday will hover around the 70 degree mark once again.
Figure 5: COD NAM 24hr Precip. Accumulation 06Z SUN – 06Z MON
If you have plans for this weekend, especially Saturday evening you might need to pack the umbrellas. Rainfall totals associated with the weekend system will approach the 1-inch mark.
The weekend system will race off towards the east heading into Monday, leaving behind mostly sunny skies, with cooler temperatures reaching the lower 60s to start of the work week.
Tonight: Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours, lows will hover around the 60 degree mark with winds around 15-20 mph.
Friday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 70. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Saturday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible during the evening/overnight hours. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69.
Sunday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High in the low 70s, with breezy conditions.
Posted inKentucky Weather|Comments Off on The Pleasant Weather Comes to an End
It was yet another sunny day in Bowling Green as we warmed to a high of 79° in the afternoon. Tomorrow could be even warmer!
Model: 0Z HRRR, Temperatures
We could beat Wednesday’s high of 79°. Winds will come from the south, bringing us a shot of warmer air- and potentially getting us to the lower 80’s. However, the price for this warmer weather is the chance for thunderstorms and gusty winds!
As shown by the models above, a line of thunderstorms with gusty winds should arrive in the early morning hours on Friday. This isn’t looking like a strong event, but something for those allergen sufferers to look forward to. The pollen count has been high, coming in at 11.7 today (extreme!). Besides Friday morning, it appears there will be two more chances at rain before the weekend comes to a close.
Model: GFS, Precip
Unfortunately (or fortunately, again for those with pollen allergies), it looks like there will be a few rounds of rain this weekend. The GFS model above paints a wet picture for the next few days, especially this Sunday. With these systems moving through, we should also cool down this weekend quite a bit from what we’ve been experiencing as of late.
After 80’s Thursday, temperatures will crash back down to 50’s and 60’s as colder air works its way into the Mid-South. Sunday should warm up again before more rain arrives, but overall the pattern looks a bit cooler than average. This is why NOAA is forecasting a 30-50% probability of below normal temperatures for the region. With the active pattern ahead, we could be in for a back-and-forth swing in temperatures over the next two weeks!
Summary:
-Thursday warms back up to the lower 80’s
-Thunderstorms and gusty winds Thursday night into Friday morning
Good afternoon everyone! This morning started off a little rough for some drivers as we had all that fog sitting over the area. Luckily by about 8:30 the majority of that fog had cleared out leaving a gorgeous, sunny day! Satellite imagery isn’t showing a lot over our are other than some clouds that are straggling behind the rain that is still hanging onto the east coast. A cold front is coming our way which will help keep temperatures comfortable for us.
There are some showers and storms in the west that will head our way, but they will not arrive until Thursday night into Friday. For now sit back and enjoy the sunny weather! There is the possibility that some areas in Kentucky could see 80° Thursday. Bowling Green looks to stay just below that as the rain tries to push its way into the area.
SUMMARY:
Tuesday:
High: 78
Low: 46
Wednesday:
High: 78
Low: 59
Thursday:
High: 79
Low: 54
Storms and showers will push into the area later at night towards Friday morning.
Many of you woke up this morning to moderate rain. Luckily, most of that has moved through and to our east. As of now, we are mostly cloudy with temperatures currently in the low to mid 60’s. Moving forward into the rest of your Monday, we will stay mostly cloudy with a chance of some scattered showers this afternoon.
HRRR 14z Precipitation Type
Most of the models are in sync that we will stay mostly dry the rest of the day and into Tuesday. There is a slight chance of some scattered light showers this afternoon, but nothing long lasting or impactful. Moving into Tuesday and mid-week we can expect the sun to return.
NAM 12z Cloud Cover
Clouds will begin moving out this evening/overnight and into Tuesday before much clearer skies take over. Tuesday and Wednesday will feel very seasonal with sunny skies and high’s in the mid 70’s. A week cold front will move through Tuesday leaving us with a low in the mid 40’s Tuesday night. Enjoy the mid-week Spring feel before rain showers return toward the end of the work week.
FORECAST
Today (4/08): Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering (light) showers this afternoon (30% chance) High: 69 Low: 54 Tonight: Mostly cloudy with clouds decreasing overnight
Tuesday (4/09): Clouds continue decreasing into Tuesday, leaving mostly sunny skies for the day High: 75 Low: 46 Tuesday Night: Mostly clear
