WKU Meteorology

Overall it has been a cold first half of November; in fact, we are on track to be the fifth coldest November on record with an average temperature of 41. The particularly cold spell at the beginning of last week helped get us to this point, but our chance of staying in the top ten coldest Novembers will diminish as we warm up over the next few days.

Tonight will be cool and calm, with a chance for some fog throughout the region overnight. Morning lows will start in the mid-30s, so don’t forget to grab a jacket before heading out the door tomorrow.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny and mild with a high of 55 as high pressure moves directly over the Commonwealth.

Wednesday night will continue to be warm with clouds increasing overnight ahead of an approaching system.

Morning lows on Thursday will dip to only 40, and it will stay mild throughout the day as a warm front brings additional heat and moisture to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Cloud cover will be dense most of the day, but highs will top out around 64.

Thursday night will start to take a turn late as rain develops ahead of a cold front. Temperatures will stay in the low 50s throughout much of the night. The rain will likely hold off until the early morning hours on Friday.

Friday through the weekend will be cooler with increased rain chances for the first half of the weekend.

Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the upper 30s under overcast skies, with the chance for some light sprinkles throughout the morning. It will remain mostly cloudy all day, as temperatures rise into the mid 50s, with a slight chance for some more light rain around 2:00pm.
Tuesday night will be dry but cloudy, keeping temperatures in the low 40s overnight. Cloud cover will remain all day Wednesday, limiting the high temperature to a cool 48°F.
Wednesday night the temperature will drop back to 40°F before midnight, however a warm front will move through the area early Thursday morning, raising the temperature back to the mid-40s by sunrise. The warm front will also bring more some more showers into the area early Thursday afternoon.

   I wouldn’t like to miss this a unique astronomical event that is happened this week because we don’t do a public direct observation of solar system planets all the time. This time on November 11, 2019 Mercury passed directory in the front of our sun and it was visible through telescope. It was a small beautiful black dot crossing the sun`s face (see fig 1). It was visible here in US because the transit began at morning time.  Note that the last transit of Mercury was in early 2016 and the next one we might see won’t be until 2023.  The current location Mercury today at this time is at perihelion which mean the location where the Mercury close to the Sun.  

The Current weather conditions at Bowling Green is fair and the temperature will reach to high 40s °F. The night will be cold with low temperature at mid-20s °F with mostly clear. No significant weather during this weekend by analysis the synoptic scale we could related the stable condition to the surface high pressure dominate at the region (see fig 2). Therefore, the weekend will be dry weather and sunshine mixed with clouds in some times.

Summary

Winter made it’s first appearance a little early this year! With a cold front sweeping through the Commonwealth last night and a serious shot of cold air behind it, the moderate rainfall we had late afternoon changed over to sleet and then all snow just after the dinner hours. With the early snow came some record breaking conditions: a record snowfall of 1.2″ for Nov. 11th and a record snowfall of .1″ for Nov. 12th. We also saw a new record low max temp for the 12th with today’s high reaching only 27.

Tomorrow’s record low temp of 13 set back in 1911 is also in jeopardy as temps will drop into the teens tomorrow morning and wind chills in the single digits. With sunny skies and high temps back into the 40s, it will be much more pleasant than today once we get past noon.

Thursday’s low will be much warmer, but still far below freezing. High temps will be a lot warmer with highs reaching close to 50, and it will be sunny once again.

Friday will be a little cooler as highs drop back into the low to mid 40s, but at least skies will be clear all day long.

The weekend will be warmer as temps move into the mid 50s with continued sunshine.

Today we reach a high temperature of 62°F, however the temperature quickly dropped as a cold front moved into our area this afternoon, bringing rain and now snow with it. The snow is should continue until shortly after midnight, although not much accumulation is expected on roadways, however, bridges and elevated roadways may freeze. While the snow may be ending tonight, the cold isn’t. Tuesday morning temperatures will be in the low 20s and will remain in the 20s all day. Brisk wind will accompany the cold air, causing single digit windchills for your morning commute, rising to the mid-teens later in the day.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be even colder, with an overnight low in the upper teens. The temperature will rise above freezing during the day, with a high around 40°F before dropping back to the mid-20s Wednesday night.

I came to WKU this morning as usual by my motorbike but this time I felt sharp pain in my ears because the temperature was 32°F (0 °C) when I was riding the bike. I think I will stop coming by this way and start using the bus. 

It is sunny right now but cold, the temperature won’t rise up too much this afternoon but in low 40s °F. the night will be extremely cold and low temperature will be upper 20s °F. it is clear and dry due to a strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley and will move to Ohio Valley later on (see figure 1).

  I prefer this time to look at SPC surface plumes to see how the temperature will oscillates during this weekend (see figure 2). All weather modules almost agree that the temperature will drop off below 0 °C this night to low 23 °F. Then the temperature will rise up on Saturday to high near 52 °F and upper 50 by Sunday due to moving the high pressure to the east. This movement will allow to warm up the area through this weekend but the low will touch again the freezing point, as plume curve shows at 6Z to 12Z. Monday will be another story because we might see snow after rain at night due to upper level flow will deepen upper level trough  and a cold front will push southeast at the same time.

Summary

Today was another cool fall day, our high temperature reached 60°F. We stayed dry today, however, that is a trend we will soon break
Tonight will be a frigid night, as temperatures fall back into the mid 30s. Wednesday we can expect temperatures to climb into the mid 60s. We have a chance for showers Wednesday afternoon, with rain chances increasing for the overnight hours as a cold front moves through our region early Thursday morning.

It seems we start the new month with a chilly temperature. My family w so sad yesterday because they couldn’t do the Halloween activities due to frozen temperature during all yesterday and night. The Freeze Warning was published yesterday until this morning. It is hard to think about it, how the temperature sharply dropped down but this is how the weather and climate work out in our life.

To analysis the cold event that took place yesterday, we must take into account the synoptic scale. A massive cold front moved and approached from north west toward south east, causing a severe cold weather last day (see figure 1). Not only that, but another cold front is coming and follow up the same scenario (see figure 2). Therefore, we might see another freeze warning during this fall. Additionally, a high pressure is located over central of US which in turn made the blue sky for the day with low temperatures, a high 40 °F and low 30 °F during night.

Summary

Tropical Storm Olga formed last Friday in the Gulf of Mexico, and briefly reached tropical storm strength before the circulation weakened and merged with a cold front. However, an important trait of tropical and post tropical systems is the substantial amount of moisture they contain, often leading to prolonged heavy rainfall and flooding. Olga was no exception, heavy rain caused flooding in the lower Mississippi River Valley Friday night, and continued northward over the weekend. By Saturday the remnants of the storm had entered the Bowling Green area, contributing to the 1.25 inches of rain recorded at the Warren County (FARM) Ky Mesonet site this weekend.

   It is cloudy and more clouds will be moved toward North east expecting the beginning of rain start afternoon to midnight. There is possibility for getting a thunderstorm before midnight with average precipitation between a half and three quarters inch. The high temperature will be mid 60 °F and low in mid-50 °F with some light rain. In this weekend, the weather instability is because a storm system will move into Ohio River Valley by Saturday night then North East by Saturday morning. This system will bring the moist air from the Gulf. But the rain will be light and showers this evening and tomorrow, and low level jet will be presented due to a good support from upper level.   

 Sunday, the rainfall will shut down from west to east because the cold front and upper support will lift off to the north east.

Summary