WKU Meteorology

Today has been the epitome of a Fall day: morning lows right around 40 and highs expected to reach into the low 70s with clear skies and calm winds all day long. It literally could not be drawn up any better. However, like all good things, this too must come to an end. A low pressure system will be moving up from the Southern Great Plains and bring with it plenty of rain over the next few days.

Tomorrow, we’ll start off at 44 degrees with partly cloudy skies. More cloud cover will be moving in by the lunch hour as rain moves up from the south. Expect the rainy weather to begin during the afternoon to evening hours and persist throughout much of the night. Highs will be in the mid-60s with dense cloud cover during peak heating keeping us cooler than what we experienced today.

Saturday will see quite an increase in temps as warm air advects into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley regions. Morning lows will be in the 50s with afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s despite the overcast skies. Models differentiate on how much rain we’ll see, but thy are starting to agree that it will likely be an inch or more. The NAM depicts less than both the GFS and the ECMWF because it is predicting a break in the constant rainfall for about half the day on Saturday. If the ECMWF and GFS prove true, we’ll see constant moderate rainfall for all of Saturday with totals amounting to 2+ inches for SOKY. Winds will be whipping as the cold front moves East toward us: 20+ mph sustained winds and gusts upwards of 35mph won’t be out of the question.

Sunday will be dry all day with temps in the 50s for the morning and highs staying down in the 60s. After such a wet weekend, a nice, cool Sunday will be a welcomed sight.

My kids are ready for collecting the candy from this Friday`s Homecoming. I remember last year, they brought a lot of candy to house until I got fried to not eat anything except that candy so I and my wife decided to hide it for a while but it did not work because the is a big story between the children and the candy which I haven’t understand it yet.

Anyhow, the homecoming will be interesting for all different age and the weather will be perfect in some point. The temperature will be at mid-60s but I don’t advise to anyone to stay out for long after sunset because the temperature will start to drop down into high 40s and into low 40s by midnight. Tomorrow will be sunny with temperature low 70s, but there will be a chance of showers at afternoon due to some instability in upper and lower atmospheric layers such as cold front and some moist air.

There will be an important astronomical event in next few days between now until October,22 which is Orionids Meteor Shower. The astronomy enthusiasts could see a banish of meteors, about 20 meteors per hour. These meteors are basically a dust grains come from comet Halley. The pick time of this phenomenon is October 21 but we won’t see some of the faint meteors because of second quarter moon but the brighter meteors can be seen in the sky.

Summary

This year’s Homecoming week has been as hectic as any other year, but the big events have yet to begin! As students finish up their respective organization’s float tonight, temperatures will drop into the lower 40s by midnight. For those pulling the dreaded all-nighter to make sure that every pomp is perfectly placed, bring some extra warm clothes tonight because morning lows will be in the upper 30s.

Friday is the day to show off the floats as students parade from the Hardin Planetarium to the Square and back up to Cherry Hall for Big Red’s Roar where this week’s winners will be announced. High temps will be in the mid-60s during the afternoon. Temps at 5:00 for the beginning of the parade at 5:00 will be around 60 degrees and dropping steadily throughout Big Red’s Roar and the NPHC Step-Show. As the official Homecoming activities wrap up around 8:30, expect temperatures to be near 50 degrees and even cooler if you are out and about for those late-night extracurricular events.

After a well deserved night of sleep, Saturday morning will be much milder than the previous couple of mornings with a low of 45 degrees. Saturday in general will be a much warmer day with a high of 74 degrees! It might get a little breezy with winds out of the north at 10 mph, but other than that it looks like a perfect day to watch our Hilltoppers clash with the Charlotte 49ers. Kickoff is at 3:00 with Homecoming celebrations and activities occurring throughout the game such as the revealing of the Homecoming Queen during halftime!

Sunday marks the end of Homecoming and introduces overcast skies ahead of the wet weather on Monday. Both Sunday and Monday will be in the 70s, but Monday will be wet most of the day with heavy rain possible for many SOKY residents.

Overall, the weather will be nice from now until the culmination of WKU’s Homecoming activities. Enjoy this good spell before the next round of wet weather approaches on Monday!

After a really nice day, we’ll end it with some wet weather tonight. Expect showers and thunderstorms to move in just before midnight tonight and stick around through the early morning hours. Rain totals will vary depending on where those thunderstorms track through the region producing heavy downpours for some. Most people can expect a quarter to a half inch of rain, but those in the heaviest downpours could see upwards of an inch tonight. October is typically the driest month of the year, but the recent rain has helped lift the burn ban for nearly every county in SOKY. Tonight’s rain will keep us out of the burn ban, but don’t forget that there is still a seasonal burn ban from 6AM-6PM through December.

Besides a very slight chance for a rain shower before the morning rush hour, Wednesday will be much drier, clearer, and cooler than Tuesday. Bowling Green will struggle to make it into the 60s, but as skies clear throughout the day, the additional sunshine should get us there. It’ll be breezy with winds out of the NW at 10-15mph. It definitely looks like the perfect day for sweats and a hoodie as you’re heading to classes on the Hill tomorrow. Keep in mind that the windy conditions could mess with the Homecoming Games at the Colonnades tomorrow afternoon especially if there are any events that involve throwing items back and forth.

Thursday will be a clone of Wednesday afternoon minus the windy conditions. Cool and sunny once again!

It will be nearly perfect weather for the students that are walking in the parade on Friday! Don those Homecoming sweatshirts/long-sleeved shirts and chant away for Dear Old Western and your favorite organizations as you walk alongside everyone that made it such a special week! Sunny skies and temps near 70 will make for a beautiful and comfortable walk to and from the Downtown Bowling Green Square.

Tonight: Low of 50 and High Chance of Rain.

Tomorrow: Skies clearing as the front moves East in the morning. High temp of 62 with windy conditions.

Tomorrow Night: Low of 38 with Clear Skies.

Thursday: High of 62 and Sunny, but temps will drop into the middle 30s before Friday morning.

Besides a very slight chance for a pop-up shower or storm today, weather conditions will be ideal for the first full day of Fall Break here in Bowling Green. Highs will be right around 80 with partly cloudy skies. If you have time, go enjoy a nice adventure with family or friends at Jackson’s Orchard on the North side of town!

Tomorrow will be a totally different story as a system moves through the area. Expect showers and storms to start during the mid-afternoon hours and carry on late into the night. Southerly winds will warm us up ahead of the afternoon storms, so you will get at least one more chance to wear a short-sleeved tee this year before donning the rain jacket for the rest of the day. High temps will hover in the low 80s. Expect less than a quarter of an inch of total rainfall Friday and Friday night.

By sunrise, showers will be east of I-65, so Bowling Green residents won’t have to worry about poor road conditions Saturday. We will have to bundle up though, considering the cool, dry air behind the cold front will keep our high temps in the low 60s. WKU’s football game against Army will be cool but dry and hopefully end in another Hilltopper win!

Sunday will remain cool, but not unseasonable for this time of year. We will have our first chance at patchy frost because of the moisture from the rain on Friday along with the cold temps Sunday morning. Expect to wake up to sub-40 degree temperatures and mid 30s for areas outside the city limits. We’ll warm up nicely to 70 degrees, so you can probably shed that heavier layer needed earlier in the morning.

As many WKU students leave for Fall Break today, it will be important to know the forecast for the area you’re heading to for the next 4 or 5 days. Here’s a quick summary of some typical vacation hot spots for college students.

Panama City Beach: Temperatures will be in the upper 80’s today through Sunday with partly cloudy skies each day. Besides the very slight chance of a stray shower this afternoon, today looks like the perfect way to start off a trip to the beach. The next and more likely chance for rain comes Saturday. It won’t be a wash out by any means, but be aware that a thunderstorm could keep you in the hotel room for a couple hours.

Colorado: If you are heading to Denver, things are going to get dicey here quick! Today’s high will feel like a nice summer day with temps in the low 80s, but a cold front moving through tonight will give us a plateful of winter. Temperatures will be dropping into the mid-20s with freezing drizzle and snow likely. Tomorrow might not even break into the 30s, and snow accumulations could amount to upwards of 3 inches. Friday start off very cold with temps in the teens and stay cool with highs only in the upper 40s. Things will start to warm up in Denver with Saturday and Sunday both reaching into the 60s. Sky conditions will be mostly clear once the system moves out Thursday night, so at least it will be pretty!

Coasts of North/South Carolina: Rain won’t be a threat for beach-goers in either state until late Sunday. By that time, most students will already be heading back to campus. Temperatures will vary along the coast. Expect upper 60s for highs in places north of Cape Hatteras, NC. Anyone between Cape Hatteras, NC and Myrtle Beach, SC can expect highs in the mid 70s each day. Farther south toward Hilton Head, SC, things will start to heat up as temps peak in the low 80s. Water temps will be between 75 and 80 degrees from north to south along the coast.

Finally, if you are staying in Bowling Green, temperatures will vary greatly especially as the weekend approaches. Today will be nice with partly cloudy skies becoming mostly clear and highs in the upper 70s. Tomorrow and Friday will both be in the low 80s, but rain will come into play Friday evening. Rain looks likely overnight Friday into Saturday, but the football game against Army at 7pm CT will be dry. On the other hand, temps will drop by 20 degrees between Friday and Saturday’s highs as Saturday barely make sit into the low 60s. Sunday will be cool but pleasant as highs warm back up into the upper 60s with mostly clear skies making for a great day to wear the flannels and jeans and head to a local pumpkin patch or orchard!

Today was cool and wet, the Ky Mesonet site in Bowling Green recording 0.77 inches of rain and a high temperature of 65°F today. The rain, and clouds for that matter, have sense moved out of the area and it will remain dry for the rest of the night, as temperatures drop into the mid-40s by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday is looking to be a great day as we will remain dry, and the high temperature will climb back into the upper-60s under sunny skies. Tuesday night will be cool and dry, with a low around 50°F by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will again be sunny, as the temperature returns to the low 70s by mid-afternoon. But fear not, Wednesday night will again be cool as the temperature drops back into the low-50s in a typical fall fashion.

We finally will start feeling cold due to cold front passing the area during this day. The high temperature will be lower 80 °F and sunny with some scattered high clouds. It is a perfect day because people could walk without feeling hot. I remember one-woman last week in Owensboro`s Smothers Park, she said to me “definitely, there is no Fall this year”. I could see her when she was sweating while she watched her children play in the playground and she was unhappy about her situation. I believe that this woman will change her main after few days.  

The ridge over Kentucky will continue moving to east as a cooler and dry air dips the low temperature on Saturday morning to mid and upper 40s with some exception in some area with above 50s. therefore, Saturday will be calm since the ridge is dominated over Kentucky but Sunday is another story. A line of storms will be observed over Ohio River and Tennessee Valley until early morning on Monday. This is because a strong upper trough will cross the area at that time. The trough will enhance the lifting across the region and then will give chance of shower and thunderstorm.  I think everybody in Bowling Green are waiting for rain therefore, there will be a significant amount of rainfall on Sunday. Figure 2 shows the forecast of precipitation amount over our area.   

Summary

The past few days have been sweltering! We set another couple records: 98 on Wednesday and 97 on Thursday. Both of the previous records were crushed. And after the 4th straight day with a record high temp, we will finally start to cool off. The cold front that just passed through will bring us dry and cool condition for Friday. Temperatures will be right around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies and dew points will be in the lower 50s. It is literally a perfect start to the weekend! Get out and Eno or enjoy a walk in the park if you are able to do so.

Saturday will be warmer as temperatures bump back up into the upper 80s. Winds will turn from NE to S during the day bringing more warm air into Southern Kentucky.

Sunday will be totally different. We are finally introducing a chance for significant rainfall into the forecast! A line of storms will move through the Ohio River and Tennessee Valleys late Sunday into early Monday morning. NAM and GFS both point to rainfall amounts of more than 1.5 inches. Whatever amount of rainfall we get, we need it! Every county surrounding Warren County by about 50 miles is in moderate to severe drought. Therefore, they are all under a burn ban.

By the time the rain moves out during the first half of Monday, nice, cool, dry air will move into our region. The start of next week will feel exactly as Fall should feel: temperatures will be in the low 70s and skies will be mostly clear. So get ready for pumpkin-pickin’ weather for the few days before Fall Break begins!

The entire month of September has been HOT! In fact, we tied the all-time record from 1939 for 90 degree days in September with 22 total. But the Summer heat has decided it wants to stick around for the beginning of October as well. Just like yesterday’s record setting 97 degree temp, we broke yet another high temp record today topping out at 97 again. The record for October 1st was 93 degrees and was set back in 1926. This also breaks the all-time high temp for the entire month of October. In summary, September ended in record breaking fashion, and October has started off the same.

Tomorrow will be a clone of what we experienced today: we’ll start off around 70 in the morning and peak with highs in the upper 90s. I can easily see us hitting 97 once again due to how dry the ground is and the southerly wind flow bringing in plenty of heat.

Thursday will again start off warm in the upper 60s. The timing of the cold front – which has been dumping rain across the Great Plains – will be instrumental in determining our high for Thursday. If it speeds up like the NAM says it will, then our high will be around 87; however, I think the GFS’s depiction of a slower moving front will allow just enough time for us to pop into the low 90s one more time. Once the front moves through Thursday evening, we’ll see temps take a quick dive to near 60.

Friday will be beautiful: highs near 81 and clear skies for miles around. So let’s get through these next couple days and get ready for a great start to the weekend!